Impact Of Export Shocks On Economic Fluctuations-the Calibration Model And Dynamic Analysis

Since China’s reform and opening up to outside world, China’s foreign trade has grown rapidly, from a total point of view, our country is indeed a major exporter, however, from a structural perspective, China’s export commodities are mostly low value-added products. Our export structure and economic development mode products are inextricably linked, the last ten years, our country’s rapid economic growth is mainly dependent on exports and investment in fixed assets, the overall economic development model is rough, over-reliance on domestic labor and natural resources, economic development model determines the structure of China’s export products. Based on this, this article attempts from China’s export structure, the use of econometric theory of cointegration analysis, preliminary study of long-term relationship between trade and economic growth of China’s export commodity structure-based features, and as a basis, for more in-depth description of export commodity structure and dynamic relationship between economic fluctuations, the article further establish a dynamic model containing two different value-added commodities export demand shocks in the framework of general equilibrium. By Matlab and Dynare simulation analysis tools and China’s economic growth and export data in the Global economic crisis in 2008, the article examine the explanatory power of the model of reality. At the same time, the article comparatively study of the impulse response function of high value-added products external demand shocks to affect China’s macroeconomic fluctuating variables with low value-added products.In this paper, the conclusions show that the model can well explain the characteristics of China’s economic volatility, from the simulation results, the demand for high value-added exports of low value-added products forward positive changes in export demand change compared to the larger macroeconomic impact on China This reminds us that in the long run, China should pay more attention to the export of high value-added products. The simulation results also show that the demand for low value-added exports, although can increase high value-added products output, but this effect is negligible, in order to increase the output of high value-added products, there are two ways, one is to improve productivity through technological innovation and to improve the output, and the second is a high value-added products through external demand positive stimulus to boost domestic output of high value-added products, which implies that the government can make efforts in two ways, One is to create a favorable environment for innovation for enterprises, encourage technological innovation, the other is from the government policy to encourage the export of high value-added products, rather than low value-added exports.