| For a long time,the financial system has generally been considered to have the ability to correct itself.For example,the supervision of bank capital and internal governance of the bank through Microprudential methods is sufficient to maintain stability in the banking industry.However,the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 broke the mindset that the stability of individual financial institutions is not equal to the stability of the overall financial system.Preventing financial systemic risks has become the focus of financial regulatory agencies in various countries.At the same time,when the financial system is extremely unstable,traditional monetary policies cannot effectively identify the actual situation of macroeconomic operations,and it is even more difficult to implement effective measures to prevent the instability of the financial system from spreading to the real economy.The academic and practical circles have begun to reflect on the shortcomings and deficiencies of the traditional Monetary Policy framework.Based on the theme of financial supply-side structural reform,they have explored the structural optimization of the Monetary Policy regulatory framework.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that deepening the reform of the financial system,improving the “dual-pillar” regulatory framework of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy,and keeping the bottom line of not having systemic risks.However,so far,China's "dual-pillar" regulatory framework has not formed a unified theoretical system,and it lacks a precise policy implementation line at the level of practice.Therefore,the research purpose of this article is to explore the macro and micro mechanisms of the influence of the "dual-pillar" regulatory framework of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy on financial stability,and to focus on the optimization of the internal coordination mechanism of the policy framework to explain Monetary Policy from a theoretical and empirical level.A two-way coordination and coordination mechanism with Macroprudential Policy provides necessary for the establishment of a scientific and comprehensive dual-pillar regulatory framework for the coordination and coordination of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy,in order to strengthen the central bank's Monetary Policy function and improve the financial supervision department's ability to prevent the two-way effectiveness of financial systemic risks theoretical support.Based on the existing literature at home and abroad,this paper studies the macro and micro mechanisms of the impact of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policies and their combination on financial stability from the perspective of credit creation,and explains the Monetary Policy and objectives,tools,transmission mechanisms of Macroprudential Policies,and optimization of coordination mechanisms within the policy framework.First,the "dual-pillar" regulatory framework aims to achieve the dual stability goals of monetary stability and financial stability,that is,the dual goals of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy;Second,this article adopts the " Monetary Policy Chronicle of Events","China Monetary Policy" Based on the textual analysis,four Macroprudential Policy tools: statutory deposit reserve ratio,window guidance,regulatory pressure,and real estate policy were adopted to construct China's Macroprudential Policy index,and its use in combination with Monetary Policy tools to control financial stability Macro-micro mechanism;In addition,in terms of the policy transmission channels of the “dual-pillar” regulatory framework,in addition to the asset price channel,interest rate channel,exchange rate channel,and credit channel of the traditional Monetary Policy framework,the signal channel is also an important transmission channel.Policy executors should strengthen expected management.Finally,traditional Monetary Policy emphasizes coordination with other policies within the scope of the total amount,but the structural optimization of Monetary Policy requires that “coordination” be incorporated into the “dual-pillar” regulatory theoretical framework,and therefore requires currency Policies and Macroprudential policies are coordinated and closely coordinated in many aspects to reduce the negative overlapping effects and offsetting effects of each policy,and to achieve the expected goal of financial stability to the greatest extent.Next,this article studies the specific impact of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy on financial stability through a combination of normative and empirical research.First,based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(DSGE)to simulate the effects of Monetary Policy and the effects of policy coordination and coordination of Monetary Policy and macroprudential policy on the “dual-pillar” regulatory framework;second,use TVP-VAR model selection quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2018.By plotting the equally-spaced impulse response function and the point-in-time impulse response function,we explore the time-varying characteristics of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy transmitted to different stages of financial stability.The coordination mechanism of the “dual-pillar” regulatory framework is optimized and relevant policy recommendations are proposed.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Although Monetary Policy naturally has a stable function,the relationship between Monetary Policy and financial stability is becoming more complex and uncertain.A single Monetary Policy has limited effectiveness in regulating financial stability.Practice has proved that Monetary Policy is not the best choice for maintaining financial stability;(2)The contribution of Macroprudential Policy to financial stability is significant in terms of the equally-spaced impulse response function or the point-in-time impulse response function,and the Macroprudential Policy can be targeted Alleviate financial imbalances caused by real estate asset prices and credit investments.Empirical conclusions show that Macroprudential Policies have an irreplaceable role in maintaining financial stability;(3)Monetary Policy has an impact on both output and credit in the implementation process,while Macroprudential Policies only affect credit and The impact is not significant.The policy implication is that with the combination of monetary and Macroprudential Policies,the central bank does not have to make a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability.Instead,it can use targeted Macroprudential Policies alone to maintain financial stability without sacrificing economic growth;or as a complement to Monetary Policy to offset the negative impact of monetary easing on financial stability.This shows that the combination of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy is conducive to achieving the dual goals of macroeconomic growth and financial stability;(4)the coordination and coordination paradigm of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy combination,resulting in a "one plus one greater than two" policy increasing effect,Helps to smooth the impact of Monetary Policy procyclicality and lag on the financial system.From the perspective of China's current policy relationship,Macroprudential Policies have a significant regulatory effect on financial stability,and at the same time they have a significant supporting effect on Monetary Policy,especially the value-to-value ratio of loans has a significant effect on financial stability.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,specific policy recommendations for optimizing the coordination mechanism are proposed:(1)in terms of operating mechanism,first,Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy should fully consider the characteristics of China's financial risk structure,and structurally optimize the “dual-pillar” regulatory framework;second,The main focus is on the coordination and coordination of Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy,with the aim of exploring the best macro-control combination paradigm for the dual policy objectives of stable growth and risk prevention;Finally,Macroprudential Policy focuses on the daily life of systemically important banks Supervision and bankruptcy liquidation,as well as the inherent relationship between financial institutions;(2)In terms of coordination mechanisms,Macroprudential Policies have a significant effect on the regulation and control of financial stability,but in the face of new shocks,new concepts are needed to give play to structural Macroprudential Policies The role of the tool can better achieve the "one plus one greater than two" policy increasing effect.The following two issues are worth paying attention to: First,individual financial stability is not equal to overall financial stability.When markets face common structural or trending changes,the supervision of individual financial institutions may be meaningless and prescribe common problems.It is important to guide and digest the risk shocks that may arise.Although the supervision of systemically important banks recognizes the scale of the financial system to a certain extent,it also mainly needs to identify the negative effects of under-and over-assessment,the "butterfly effect" of systemic risks,and the risky behavior of "Too Big To Fail";It is the shock of information manufacturing that increases the volatility of financial markets,and counter-cyclical regulation cannot regulate the new situation of the same frequency resonance worldwide.Therefore,the focus of financial stability supervision under the impact of information technology should be expected management.Use information communication,forward-looking guidance,and technology to reasonably guide the public's expectations,obtain dynamic data in real time,feedback information,and issue instructions in a timely manner to make advance judgments in the future and improve regulatory efficiency. |
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