Research On Investor Behavior Deviation Based On P2P Network Loan Platform

With the rapid development of China’s economy,small and micro enterprises and self-employed people play an important role in the national economy,and the role in the financial market cannot be ignored.Compared with large-scale enterprises,it is difficult for small and micro enterprises and self-employed persons to obtain loans from traditional financial institutions,which aggravates the problems of financing difficulties and fund shortage of small and micro enterprises and self-employed persons.In this context,P2P network lending came into being.It connects Internet technology and private lending.At the same time,P2P network lending platform shows an explosive growth trend.The disintermediated transaction mode reduces the transaction cost,alleviates the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises and individual businesses,and promotes the efficiency of financing.In 2019,the cumulative transaction volume of P2P network lending in China is 871 billion Yuan.P2P network lending platform has become an important lending channel in China’s private finance.However,at the same time,various problems such as frequent accidents and illegal fund-raising of P2P network loan platform began to highlight.As a mode of Inclusive Finance,the majority of the investors in the Internet loan market are ordinary non professional investors.Due to the lack of corresponding knowledge and experience,the operation mechanism and potential risk of the financial market are ignored,which increases the investment risk and leads to the instability of the financial market.However,the existing research on P2P online loan focuses more on the factors affecting the success of loan and regulatory policies,and attempts to explain the root of the problem from the perspective of P2P online loan platform and government regulatory policies,while neglecting the research on the impact of internal and external factors of P2P platform on investor behavior.This paper attempts to make up for the lack of the existing research on the behavior of P2P Internet loan market to investors.Based on the existing literature,this paper analyzes the macro background and main characteristics of the development of P2P network loan platform in China.The paper also analyzes the current situation and existing problems of P2P online lending platform development in China by using the online lending home and zero one financial data.On this basis,from the perspective of P2P online loan platform investors,this paper empirically analyzes the factors outside the platform and the impact of platform factors on investor behavior.On the basis of information asymmetry,herd behavior,signaling theory and behavioral finance theory,this paper discusses whether investors can identify the information value of successful borrowing times,borrowing purposes,borrowing groups and positive words.This paper uses the questionnaire survey data and the transaction data of Renren loan online lending platform,and makes an empirical test based on the proposition hypothesis.First of all,this paper describes the current development of P2P online lending platform in China by using the online lending home and zero one financial data.P2P online lending platform has grown from barbaric growth to compliance development.With the introduction of audit and regulatory policies,the number of P2P online lending platforms began to decline,and inferior platforms were eliminated.P2P online lending platforms tend to develop steadily.Secondly,this paper empirically studies the influence of financial knowledge on investors’ behavior.Using 950 data from a questionnaire survey and probit and tobit models,this paper investigates the possibility and degree of participation of financial knowledge to investors in P2P network lending.The empirical results show that the residents’ financial knowledge has a significant positive impact on their participation in P2P online lending,that is,the more financial knowledge,the greater the possibility of participating in P2P online lending platform,and the higher the proportion of P2P online lending expenditure in income.Residents’financial knowledge improves the possibility of participating in P2P network loans.This shows that financial knowledge has an impact on investor behavior.Thirdly,based on the factors of P2P online loan platform,this paper uses the transaction data and logistic regression model of Renren loan platform in China to explore the impact of the number of successful loans,the purpose of loans,the groups of borrowers and the positive vocabulary on the behavior of investors.The results show that the more successful borrowings are,the higher the rate of successful borrowings is,the lower the default rate is.Investors prefer orders with more successful borrowings.The number of successful borrowings has information value and transmission effect.The purpose of borrowing is divided into consumption borrowing and investment borrowing.The success rate of consumption borrowing is high and the default rate is low.Compared with investment borrowing,the success rate of investment borrowing is low The loan group is divided into three categories:working class,small and micro enterprises and online businesses.The working class has a high loan success rate and a low default rate.The more active words in the order text,the higher the loan success rate and the lower the default rate.These information become the basis for investors to identify risks.Although China’s personal credit evaluation system is not perfect,the information disclosed by the borrower is not necessarily sufficient.In such a serious information asymmetry situation,using the information disclosed by the borrower on Renren loan platform,investors can identify valuable information,indicating that investors have certain ability to identify risks.This provides a certain foundation for the healthy and stable development of P2P network loans in China.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to standardize the market policy of P2P network loan in China,that is,to establish the personal credit evaluation system,to establish the protection measures for the relevant stakeholders,and to popularize financial education.Finally,the innovation,limitations and future research direction of this paper.The innovations of this paper are as follows:Innovation point 1:It combines the external factors(financial knowledge)of P2P online lending platform with the factors on the platform(number of historical successful loans,purpose of loans,groups of borrowers and positive emotional vocabulary),revealing the impact of internal and external factors on investors’ behavior.When investors have financial knowledge,they choose P2P network loan platform with high participation,which causes investors’ behavior deviation.Factors on the platform can also cause investors’ behavior deviation,but few scholars combine the factors inside and outside the platform to analyze the influence of factors inside and outside the platform on investors’ behavior.Innovation point 2:This paper introduces the theory of signal transmission into this study,using the number of historical successful borrowings in the loan order as a signal,not only the loan default rate is low but also can be recognized by other investors,so the number of historical successful borrowings has information value and transmission effect.Innovation point 3:This paper selects three empirical models:probit,logit and Tobit,and takes number of historical successful loans,loan purpose,loan group and positive emotional vocabulary as independent variables,and other factors of the platform as control variables.Through the empirical design of these information,we can verify the loan default rate,and take these information as the risk of investors through theoretical logic analysis The agent index of risk identification ability becomes the basis for potential investors to identify risks.Innovation point four:Most of the literature on investor behavior research uses online loan platform transaction data as samples.This article combines questionnaire survey data with P2P platform actual transaction data to comprehensively examine the impact of internal and external factors on investor behavior.