| As an important economic variable that can affect both the demand and supply of the real estate market,industrial agglomeration was closely related to the rise of real estate price.At the same time,as one of the typical characteristics of China's regional economic development,industrial agglomeration represented the future trend of China's regional economic development.Therefore,to study the effect of industrial agglomeration area of our country real estate prices had important academic value and practical significance,such as to explain China's real estate prices provide a new perspective with new evidence,found that the price of real estate in our country the regional differentiation of the essential reasons behind the phenomenon,as well as the different cities combined with real estate market regulation and provide beneficial reference for industrial policy.In the definition of population agglomeration,real estate and real estate price related concepts,to domestic and foreign relevant industry agglomeration effect on property prices,on the basis of the research literature on Chinese real estate market development phase analysis,and from the theoretical level in order to investigate the influence of industrial agglomeration on real estate prices,and the mechanism of action of industrial agglomeration affected real estate prices and the threshold effect,selecting appropriate economic variables,in China from 2000 to 2016,35 large and medium cities data as sample,using static panel data model,dynamic panel data model,the mediation effect test model and threshold panel model for empirical research.The main research conclusions of this paper were as follows:First,China's industrial agglomeration showed obvious regional differences and industrial differences,and real estate prices also showed obvious regional differences.Industrial agglomeration in features clear difference between the three areas,in addition to Beijing and Hainan,the eastern part of the manufacturing industry location entropy index significantly greater than 1,the central region and west region in addition to Henan,Anhui,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and other provinces had good performance,including the Northeast old industrial base of the other provinces manufacturing agglomeration levels were low.Different from manufacturing industry,the construction industry generally had a relatively high agglomeration level in the central and western regions dominated by development and construction.However,due to the strong centrality of financial industry,there were obvious differences between east and west,as well as between provinces within the zone.The real estate agglomeration from the tertiary industry had similar characteristics due to the financial industry,and it was closely related to the cold and hot real estate market in the region.According to the data of average sales price of commercial housing in different regions,the comparison showed that the real estate price in eastern China was significantly higher than that in central and western China,and the real estate price in eastern provinces was highly differentiated.The land cost data of 35 large and medium-sized cities also showed similar characteristics.Second,industrial agglomeration had a significant impact on real estate prices.In theory,industrial agglomeration can affect residents' purchasing capacity and quantity of real estate,thus increasing the market demand for real estate.Meanwhile,industrial agglomeration can affect land supply and financing cost of real estate development,thus affecting the supply of real estate market,and affecting the price of real estate from the perspectives of supply and demand.In 35 large and medium cities data as samples,according to the results of the dynamic panel data model to estimate the manufacturing and construction industries agglomeration of real estate agglomeration had significant positive influence,the financial sector and real estate industry agglomeration effect was not significant,this reflects the entity represented by manufacturing and construction level of economic development and even can affect the price of real estate for a long time,the rise in the price level of real estate in our country were entities with a certain degree of economic support.In addition,wage income,wealth level,construction cost and land cost all had a significant positive impact on the real estate price,and the completed area of houses had a significant negative impact on the real estate price,which was consistent with the expected conclusion of the theory of supply and demand determining the real estate price.Thirdly,population agglomeration and land cost were the important mechanism variables that influence the real estate price.Industrial agglomeration and population agglomeration were the two foundations for the theory of economic agglomeration,and economic factors were the main reasons for population migration and flow.The regional economic development differences caused by industrial agglomeration promote the occurrence of population agglomeration,and the housing demand of population stimulated the rise of real estate prices.Industrial agglomeration promoted the government to balance the supply of industrial land and residential land,and the effect of new land transfer income on the government's financial balance and subsidy for the infrastructure construction of industrial land strengthened the management motivation of the government to raise the land price,thus pushing up the real estate cost and sales price.The results of intermediary effect test showed that population agglomeration and land cost can partially transmit the influence of manufacturing agglomeration on real estate price,both of which were important influencing mechanisms of manufacturing agglomeration on real estate price.Fourth,the influence of industrial agglomeration on real estate prices had obvious threshold effect characteristics,in line with the law of diminishing marginal effect.City in natural conditions,location conditions,industrial structure,and many other differences,industrial agglomeration on urban heterogeneity can affect the real estate market,and the role of the size of industrial agglomeration and the 1234 cities in our country real estate prices obvious difference for the study of industry cluster in the different city real estate prices affect the differences in performance provided the basis in reality.Selection of industrial agglomeration level,population agglomeration level and land costs reflect city of heterogeneity and variables for the threshold of the real estate market development condition,the empirical study found that for most was in the development of cities,the low level of overall urban industrial agglomeration,the low level of population agglomeration and low land costs,industrial agglomeration more positive impact on the real estate prices.Points industry,manufacturing industry agglomeration in urban industrial agglomeration level was not high on the positive role in promoting greater in property prices,and the financial industry agglomeration in urban industrial concentration levels above a certain threshold of real estate prices were increasingly positive role in promoting,with the theory of industrial upgrading the city's economic development under the reality was consistent.For cities with high degree of industrial agglomeration,such as Beijing and Shanghai,the agglomeration of financial industry played a greater role in the rise of real estate price,while for most ordinary cities,the agglomeration of real economy,such as manufacturing industry,can significantly drive the rise of real estate price.Based on the above research conclusions,combined with the actual development of China's regional economic development and real estate market,this paper puts forward policy Suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market: First,we should promote balanced and coordinated development of all regions and narrow the gap in economic development,industrial agglomeration and real estate prices between the eastern region and the central and western regions.Second,we should pay attention to the impact of population agglomeration on the real estate prices of large and medium-sized cities,and try our best to take various forms to ensure the housing problem of the inflow of population in large and medium-sized cities.Third,it is importance to large and medium-sized cities rising land costs rise in property prices,reasonable solution to the local government with residential land transfer income support industrial land development costs,with residential land sales make up the deficit problem,completely curb local governments to raise land price,land management motivation boost real estate prices.We will strengthen top-level design and carry out systematic reform of the fiscal and tax systems,the evaluation of officials' promotion,the division of powers between central and local governments,and the transfer of land properties,and other important economic systems. |
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