Research About Regional Real Estate Price Fluctuation And Conduction Mechanism In China

China ended the welfare housing policy and carried out housing monetization reforming in 1998.With real estate being investmented,housing completion area,sales area and prices rising,the real estate market ushered in the rapid development.At the same time,the volatility of real estate price also showed a more obvious regional.The volatility of real estate price is undoubtedly the residents'one of the most concerns of life.There will be regional linkage phenomenon while real estate price fluctuating.That is the regional transmission phenomenon of real estate price.How to grasp China's regional real estate price volatility and transmission mechanism becomes the focus of government and academia.The core problem of this paper is the regional real estate price fluctuation and transmission mechanism.By analyzing the real estate industry data of 35 large and medium cities in eastern,central,western and northeastern regions,this paper studies the basic and non-basic influencing factors of regional real estate price fluctuation by establishing the panel data regression model.Through empirical analysis,the influencing factors of real estate price fluctuation in four regions of China are quite different.The real estate market of the eastern region is more developed,data and empirical results are more typical.Therefore,this article selected the eastern region to analyze the regional transmission mechanism of real estate price.In this paper,the eastern region is divided into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta region,the Pearl River Delta region and other regions,and the three growth pole-Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen of the eastern region is selected.In this paper,the covariance test and the Granger causality test of time series data are used to analyze the conduction mechanism between the three growth poles in the region and the region,namely ripple effect.Through the empirical analysis,it is found that the three growth poles have one-way conduction effect to other cities,that the three growth pole does not affect each other,that the transmission effect of the three growth poles weaken as the geographical distance became far.This paper then gives some reasonable explanations of the ripple effect,and analyzes the conduction mechanism comprehensively.Finally,this paper summarizes the previous analysis and puts forward some policy references,including:reasonable regulation of the overall supply and demand of the real estate market,including local policy;the relevant government departments establishing a scientific and perfect real estate industry index system,the publication of the credibility of the real estate-related data,opening the cost of commercial housing development;Actively promoting the interest rate market-oriented reform,playing the role of interest rates on the real estate market regulation;in the full consideration of the regional real estate market,developing scientific and targeted control policies.