The Effect Of Green Credit Policy On Firms’ Export Behavior ——Based On Firms’ Export Product Quality And Dual Margins Of Exporting

This paper introduces the green credit policy,export product quality,and dual margins of exporting and summarizes the effects and action mechanisms of the green credit policy on firms’ export product quality and dual margins of exporting（Including export scale,exit decision,and export duration）through a literature review.Furthermore,the paper compares the historical development and new features of the green credit policy in the new era and explores the relationship between the green credit policy and enterprises’ export.As for the empirical evidence,the author uses the promulgation of the “Green credit policy” in China as a quasi-natural experiment impacts,uses the enterprises pollution emission indexes disclosed in the pollution emission database of Chinese industrial enterprises to construct a pollution emission index as a criterion for defining heavily polluting enterprises.Based on a differencesin-differences（DID）Mode,this paper analyzes the impact of the green credit policy on Chinese enterprises’ export product quality,export scale and exit decision as well as their export duration.To be specific,this paper analyzes the impact of the green credit policy on export product quality of polluting enterprises and its’ mechanism of action,from the perspective of the Porter effect.Furthermore,it analyzes the green credit policy’s impact on the export scale of polluting enterprises and the policy’s action path from the perspective of the trade intensive margin based on the "compliance cost" effect of the green credit policy.The impact of the green credit policy on the polluters’ exit decisions also analyzed from the perspective of the trade extensive margin based on the resource allocation function of the green credit policy.This paper also tests the effect of green credit policy on firms export duration time.From the perspective of technological progress,the green credit policy inhibits heavy polluting enterprises from improving export product quality mainly because it increases the financing constraints of heavy polluting enterprises,and enterprises have to spend part of their capital on the acquisition of emissions equipment,which leads to limitations in their R＆D activities.The results of the mechanism analysis show that after the implementation of the green credit policy,the number of heavy polluters’ emission equipment increased,the investment in cleaner production inhibited R＆D activities,and firms’ patent applications decreased significantly.The green credit policy does not generate the "Porter effect” instead,it inhibits technological upgrades.The heterogeneity analysis results show that the green credit policy has a stronger inhibitory effect on the export product quality of enterprises with high financing constraints and that it has an inhibitory effect on the export product quality of enterprises in the eastern region,non-state enterprises,general trade enterprises,and enterprises without intermediate product imports.Conversely,the policy has no significant effects on the export product quality of enterprises in the processing trade or in a non-eastern region,state-owned enterprises,and enterprises with intermediate product imports.From the perspective of compliance costs,the green credit policy inhibits heavy polluters’ export scale expansion,i.e.,it does not help with the growth of polluters’ exports intensive margin.This is mainly because the policy caused polluting enterprises to invest more in cleaner production to obtain bank credits,and the role of compliance costs led to a decrease in the marginal output of enterprise factors.In addition,some enterprises with substandard environmental performance chose high-interest private borrowing to obtain funds,which also led to a deviation in the allocation of factors from the optimal level and a decline in the marginal output of capital.Eventually,this caused the export scale of enterprises to shrink.Furthermore,the paper uses a triple difference model incorporating a financing constraint dummy variable to analyze the moderating effects of financing constraints on the export size of the enterprises affected by green credit policies.The regression results show that green credit policies have a greater inhibiting effect on the export scale of firms with high financing constraints.The conclusion of the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the green credit policy have more negative effect on smaller firms,firms in regions with low financial marketization level,labor-intensive firms,firms in the eastern region,and non-state-owned firms,while the negative effect on larger firms,firms in regions with high financial marketization level,state-owned firms,and firms in non-eastern regions are relatively smaller.From the perspective of extensive margin,this paper analysis the effect of green credit on firms exit decision using the regression methods of OLS and Probit.The results show that the green credit policy increases the probability of heavy polluting enterprises exiting the export market.The financing and production costs of these enterprises increased after the implementation of the green credit policy.This caused some enterprises with low total factors productivity（TFP）to make exit decisions.This effect has heterogeneous characteristics for enterprises with different TFP levels.The mechanism analysis shows that the green credit policy can bring about the "survival of the fittest" effect,accelerating the exit of low-productivity firms from the export market and enabling the surviving high-productivity firms to gain a greater market share,thus realizing the reallocation of market resources.The triple difference model incorporating the dummy variable of financing constraint shows that the green credit policy has a higher impact on the exit probability of firms with high financing constraints.This reflects the green credit policies’ role in the allocation of resources from high-polluting sectors to cleaner production sectors through financial means.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the green credit policy has a significant impact on the exit probability of enterprises in regions with low financial market development,non-stateowned enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region,and enterprises not subsidized by the government.Conversely,it does not have a significant impact on enterprises in regions with high financial market development,state-owned enterprises,enterprises in non-eastern regions,and those receiving government subsidies.This paper further considers the exit of enterprises from the export market as a "survival" issue and analyzes the green credit policy’s impact on the polluters’ export duration based on the enterprises export survival time as measured using the customs database.Additionally,the study conducts an auxiliary verification of the resource allocation effect of the green credit policy.The regression results show that the green credit policy significantly reduces the export survival time of heavy polluting enterprises.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the green credit policy has a significant negative impact on the survival time of enterprises in areas with low levels of financial marketization,smallscale enterprises,and enterprises in the eastern region,while it has no significant impact on large-scale enterprises,enterprises in non-eastern regions,and enterprises with a high level of financial marketization.