Emergency Decision Analysis Methods Considering Behaviors And Preferences Of Decision Makers

In recent years,various types of emergencies,especially those unconventional ones,which are frequent in the world,have increasingly highlighted the urgent needs for emergency management in the contemporary society.In the presence of complex environments and highly uncertain information as well as limited available resources,how to make scientific,timely and effective decisions to maximize the protection of people's lives and property security,and to maintain the normal operation of the national economy,we should give a full consideration for decision makers to make use of subjective initiative.Furthermore,the behaviors and preferences of decision makers,which are an important channel for them to express subjective initiative,should be fully considered in emergency decision making.Therefore,in view of the complexity,uncertainty,timeliness and multiple decision makers of emergency decision making problems,we investigate the research on emergency decision analysis methods considering behaviors and complex preferences of decision makers based on the relevant research results at home and abroad.The research is carried out from the following 4 aspects.(1)Emergency decision analysis methods based on the aggregation of conflicting preference information,which is provided by decision makers,is developed.To solve the collaborative decision making problems in which multiple sections or decision makers express conflicting and implacable preferences,we introduce several representation tools to characterize conflicting preferences,based on which,techniques for aggregating conflicting preferences are investigated in a detailed way.Specifically,we study the preference aggregation techniques in which the considered conflicting preferences are represented by dual hesitant fuzzy sets,interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy sets and interval-valued hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets,respectively.The proposed aggregation techniques are either on the assumption of independent criteria or on the assumption of interacting criteria.In addition,based on the proposed aggregation techniques,emergency decision analysis methods considering multiple decision makers and objectives are developed to accommodate certain conflicting preference context.(2)An emergency decision analysis method considering complex preferences and incomplete information is proposed.To solve the emergency decision making problems in which preferences of decision makers and incomplete information of objects may not compatible,we present compatible measures,i.e.,consistency and inconsistency measures.Then an emergency decision analysis model considering complex preferences of decision makers and incomplete information of objects is proposed by means of optimizing compatible measures and constraining complex preferences of decision makers.The proposed model accepts several kinds of preferences,such as the importance of criteria and that of their ordered positions as well as the incomplete preference relations on a couple of alternatives.In addition,the proposed model considers the interactions among criteria and those among their ordered positions in the process of handling complex preferences and incomplete information.(3)A heterogeneous emergency group decision analysis method considering behaviors and complex preferences of decision makers is presented.To solve the emergency decision making problems,in which a decision maker would exhibit bounded rational behaviors,such as reference dependence and loss aversion,in the presence of uncertainties and in which the criteria are of heterogeneous nature,we propose several individual decision making models to accommodate different preference structures,based on which,a parametric mix integer nonlinear programming model is developed to elicit the opinion of the group.The proposed model considers importance and interactions as well as aspirations of criteria.In addition,the developed model comprehensively considers both the majority and the minority principles in the process of eliciting group final ranking.(4)An interactive robustness analysis framework considering behaviors and complex preferences of decision makers is put forward.To solve the emergency decision making problems in which all the inputs inherent in traditional multicriteria decision analysis methods may be uncertain,we take a TODIM method,which is founded on cumulative prospect theory,as an example and then develop two robustness analysis models based on stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis.One model is based on the assumption of independent criteria and the other one is based on the assumption of interacting criteria with a hierarchical structure.The proposed models accept uncertain inputs including uncertain criteria measurements and uncertain parameters.The uncertain criteria measurements mainly refer to stochastic uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty and the uncertain parameters involve criteria weights,behavior parameter or non-additive measures on a criterion set.In addition,the proposed models allow decision makers to elicit the most robust alternative by considering the updated preferences derived from analyzing the current situation in different stages of evolution of an emergency.The results of this study not only enrich the research perspective of emergency decision making,but also further develop the theories and methods of emergency decision making,which is of great significance to perfect the system of emergency decision making,and is helpful for decision makers to improve the efficiency and quality of a decision in the presence of emergencies.In addition,this study also provides a historical reference and guidance for other researchers who are to carry out research in this field.