The Research Of Risk Decision Method Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory Considering Multiple Reference Points

Multiple attribute decision making under risk is an important part of modern decision field, which is widely used in military, economic, management and all aspects of life, and has been a hot research field of decision. In the process of risk decision-making, because the decision maker is not completely rational person, who have risk attitude when face to loss or gain, therefore, how to consider the decision makers’ psychological behavior in decision making to make it more realistic, which is a key research field of risk type decision from the view of reality decision, cumulative prospect theory is proposed based on the limited theoretical hypothesis, Based on cumulative prospect theory to study multi-attribute decision making under risk can fully consider the decision maker’s psychological behavior.The choice of reference points is a key problem in the research of risk decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory, the traditional reference point selection is single reference point, which exist some defects included decision unreasonable, decision unfair and so on, this article setted up a comprehensive reference point system from the external, internal(and time dimensions), multiple reference points can satisfy the inherent requirements of decision making(comprehensive, multi angle and fairness). So, this paper puts forward several methods about risk decision making based on cumulative prospect theory considering multi reference points, and applied to the performance evaluation of the social credit system.Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing risk decision-making method, this paper presents a multi attribute decision making method under risk based on cumulative prospect theory considering double reference points, which sets up internal and external reference points, and constructs the attribute weight optimization model, finally, the efficiency of this method is verified through the comparison with different methods in the case of supplier selection.This paper reseach the risk group decision making based on single risk decision-making, we put forward a kind of risk group decision making method using cumulative prospect theory to consider double reference points, which optimize the decision makers’ weights based on the idea of maximizing deviation, then, to rank and select programmes by cumulative prospect value, finally, this method is applied to the engineering bidding to verify its effectiveness.We put forward a kind of risk dynamic decision method based on cumulative prospect theory considering three reference points. Firstly, to define three reference points setting method, followly, to construct the phase weights model combining the orness measure and the concept of similarity, then, to rank programmes through aggregating dynamic informations, finally, the method’s effectiveness is illustrated by the case of investment firm selection.Finally, considering the actual problems that the evaluation of social credit system construction of the performance in South of Jiangsu, using this method(the risk multiple attribute decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory considering double reference points) applied to performance evaluation of the credit system construction, then, we can have a reasonable and comprehensive assessment about credit system construction of each South of Jiangsu city, and propose some corresponding policy recommendations according to the evaluation results.