The Study On Formation Mechanism And Fluctuating Factors Of International Crude Oil Price

As a kind of basic energy, oil is an important driver of modern economic development. However, the constant fluctuation of oil price has brought negative influence on the world economy and become a disadvantageous factor on the stable development of economic in future. How to recognize the fluctuating factors of international oil price and stabilize the international crude oil price to maintain a sustained and sound development of the international crude oil market are the problems governments and economic organizations need to solve.Firstly, the effects of supply factors including oil reserves, reserve-production ratio and OPEC production, demand factors including the world economic activities level, energy application status and oil inventory etc. and the non-supply-dimand factors including the crude oil future price, dollar rate and international emergent events etc. on international crude oil price are qualitatively analyzed.Secondly, the gray slope-correlation model is introduced. The absolute value of the difference of the mean relative change rate time series curve of the main factor and secondary factors is changed to the absolute value of the difference of the absolute value of the mean relative change rate, which makes the correlation coefficient of the positive and negative period of the mean relative change rate make the same contribution to the correlation degree. The sign function and resolution coefficient ? are introduced and the rationality and optimal property of the optimized model are proved. The influencing facors of the international crude oil price are analyzed using the gray slope-correlation model, and the results show that the top three facors are OPEC production, the world economic activities level and the crude oil future price.Then the crude oil price formation model is built from the angle of supply-demand equilibrium, and the opening degree of the oil-importing countries is introduced to the model to improve it. The influencing factors of the supply-demand system and the international crude oil price are quantitatively analyzed on the basis of the model. The results show that the influence of changes in different directions of the influencing factors to the international crude oil price is normally asymmetrical, for example, the influence of the negative change of OPEC production on oil price is greater than the positive change, and the influence of the world GDP proves the contrary. Finally, the long-term co-integration relationship, short-term dynamic relationship, causality relationship and the conduction lag between spot price and future price which ranks first of the correlation degree are analyzed. The results show that the long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the international crude oil spot price and future price. The spot price is strongly and rapidly influenced by itself and the future price. The conduction lag is zero which means that the oil spot price and future price of crude oil is in synchronism.The study results have certain theoretical meaning for enriching and perfecting the theories of oil price formation and fluctuation and also certain realistic meaning for practice.