| Economic growth is the basis of human survival and development.Why does the economy grow? This is a proposition that economic researchers have been answering but not satisfied with.At first,human can achieve growth by putting labor into the land,but with the emergence of division of labor,the formation of market,capital and technology involved in the growth,the production function has become increasingly complex.Economists put the contribution of factors other than capital and labor force to growth into "residual value",and total factor production rate has become an important factor of economic growth.Later,researchers separated the system,space and other factors from the "residual value".Obviously,with the development of production from simple to complex,market from segmentation to connectivity,division of labor from single to diversified,growth factors continue to emerge,new business forms continue to spawn,and industrial linkage are increasingly networked,which makes it difficult to fully reveal the causes of economic growth.Although the industrial linkage has not been forgotten by economics,from Quesnay's economic table to Leontief's input-output table,the industrial Input-Output linkage has been comprehensively measured from the perspective of economic statistics.Based on the input-output table,the linkage effect,spillover effect and feedback effect between industries can be analyzed,and it can also be used to identify the position of leading industry and industry value chain.However,how input-output linkage promote the growth of a country or region is still a missing area.The absence of such research leads to the mismatch of economic growth links in a country,which makes it more difficult to explain the growth gap between different regions in a country.The isolated industry does not exist.Only when the industrial system is formed in the input-output relationship can the industry develop.So,is industrial linkage the cause of a country's economic growth? Why does one region in a country develop better than another,with large scale and high quality? From the perspective of industrial input-output linkage,this paper comprehensively reveals the industrial input-output linkage effect in economic growth,and systematically studies the growth effect of industrial input-output linkage and regional economic growth and development gap.In the theoretical analysis,this paper introduces the industrial linkage into the economic growth analysis framework,constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the growth effect of industrial input-output linkage and regional economic growth and development differences,establishes the theoretical connection of industrial linkage,industrial agglomeration and regional economic growth and development gap,and puts forward that the growth effect of industrial input-output linkage is to lead to regional economic growth,puts forward a theoretical hypothesis that the growth effect of industrial input-output linkage is the cause of regional economic growth and development gap,which separates industrial linkage from the "total factors" of economic growth source,it has become a relatively independent growth factor,thus enriching the theory of economic growth.At the same time,this paper discusses the economic reasons of industrial agglomeration from the perspective of industrial agglomeration in the industrial chain,which not only effectively expands the theory of industrial agglomeration,but also provides a new research dimension for the theory of industrial agglomeration.In addition,the different agglomeration positions of industries in the industrial chain lead to different leading industries,and further determine the power and quality of economic growth,thus explaining the development gap of a domestic region under the same institutional arrangement,which is also a useful supplement to the theory of industrial structure and the theory of the causes of regional gap.In the aspect of statistical method,this paper uses the influence coefficient and the induction coefficient in the input-output table to construct the industrial linkage distance and further calculate the industrial linkage distance matrix,and introduces it into the basic growth equation,then based on the perspective of supply and demand,taking 34 industries and 42 regional industries with large scale and multi ownership in China as samples,this paper comprehensively measures the industrial input-output linkage effect in economic growth,and empirically studies how the growth effect caused by industrial input-output linkage leads to the formation of regional economic growth and development gap.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,in the absence of new factor input,through the output linkage,capital linkage and labor linkage,there is a growth effect.At the same time,due to the different agglomeration of different industries in the value chain,there are differences in the growth of different ownership industries.Based on the construction of industrial linkage distance and industrial linkage matrix,this paper measures the industrial inputoutput autocorrelation of China's 34 industries with large-scale and multi ownership(state-owned and state-controlled,private,foreign investment and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan investment)in 2007~2012 and 2013~2018.The results show that there is a significant positive industrial linkage autocorrelation among the 34 industries According to the classification of industrial clusters,it is found that there are differences in the classification of industrial clusters with large scale and multi ownership,and the changes of industrial associations in different periods will also make the industries in industrial clusters have differences.Secondly,the central and peripheral clusters of China's industrial industry have different economic growth models and industry related growth effects,and the general economic growth model will overestimate or underestimate the elasticity of capital and labor output of industry related clusters to a certain extent without considering industry related growth.Under the effect of industry related growth,excluding the short-term effect,the production function under the long-term cointegration equilibrium more truly reveals the growth essence of industries above scale and multi ownership.Thirdly,under the industrial linkage,the linkage transfer and spillover effects of output value,capital and labor among industries arranged by different organizational systems are also significantly different.On the whole,the linkage capital has a negative effect on economic growth,that is,the capital input of one industry will inhibit the output,capital and labor of other industries,which has a negative impact on the whole industrial system,while the linkage labor has a positive spillover effect,which has a positive impact on the whole industrial system.Fourthly,under the same institutional arrangement,the relationship between different regions leads to different center periphery structure of industrial agglomeration in the value chain,and the quality effect of industrial relationship growth is obviously different.Taking the whole country,Shanghai,Hubei Province and Yunnan Province as samples,according to the construction of industrial association distance and correlation matrix,four industrial association clusters in each region are divided,and the difference of regional center industrial agglomeration can be clearly seen.From the perspective of China's situation,the central industries in the relatively developed regions are concentrated at the high end of the value chain,and the integration of service industry and high-end manufacturing industry is obvious,while the central industries in the less developed regions are concentrated at the low end of the value chain.Fifthly,the industrial economic growth mode and related growth effect are different among regions.First of all,as far as the sub regions are concerned,the western region is the most driven by the final consumption and investment demand,while the eastern and central regions are the most driven by the export demand.Under the effect of industry related growth,the economic growth in the western region is driven by the consumption demand of related industries,while the eastern and central regions are hindered by the related investment and the related export demand.Shanghai's economic growth is most driven by final consumption,followed by export and investment,while Hubei and Yunnan's economic growth is most driven by export,followed by final consumption and investment.Under the growth effect of industrial linkage,the three regions are all affected by the negative effect of related investment and the positive effect of related export,and are all driven by the positive effect of related consumption except Shanghai.In view of the research conclusions obtained in this paper,it has clear policy implications.First of all,for the external circulation,we should open up all links of the industrial chain,strengthen the industrial linkage,and strengthen the value chain segmentation,so as to promote the comprehensive and in-depth integration of the manufacturing industry into the global value chain reconstruction and the remodeling of the international division of labor pattern,and enhance the potential scale of China's international trade and direct investment in the external circulation,and put forward some suggestions.Second,for the internal circulation,China should break the industrial segmentation to shorten the industrial association distance,promote the linkage development of upstream and downstream industries and related industries,realize the regional industrial integration development in the internal circulation,and improve the quality of economic growth.Third,through the reconstruction of regional industrial association,realize the center periphery industrial structure in the industrial chain of underdeveloped areas the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,while expanding the agglomeration scale of central industry related clusters,should also promote the central industry related clusters to move to the high-end,and fully drive the development of peripheral industries.In addition,it is necessary to formulate differentiated industrial development policies,eliminate barriers to inter regional industrial transfer,reconstruct global value chain through internal circulation of domestic value chain,and realize regional coordinated development in internal and external circulation. |
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