| Since the 1970s,with the continuous advancement of global economic integration and the opening of international financial markets,cross-border capital flows have gradually become the most important force in promoting the development of international capital markets.The international flow of capital brings about the transnational allocation of economic resources across the globe,which greatly promotes the integration and development of the global economy,yet meanwhile also induces many new problems and risks.Especially in the process of financial opening up of emerging economies,cross-border capital plays the role of a "double-edged sword".On the one hand,it brings a large amount of external capital to emerging economies that are originally short of funds,so that it promotes rapid economic development.On the other hand,it leads them to a lot of hidden risks.One can see that from the Mexican financial crisis in 1994,to the Asian financial crisis in 1997,and to the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,these crises were all fueled by cross-border capital flows.Meanwhile,after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,the global real economy is facing a threat of recession.In order to smooth economic fluctuations,governments around the world have adopted frequent measures to adjust economic policies,which has further pushed the uncertainty of global economic policies.Consequently,the frequent changes of economic policies have become a key factor affecting economic uncertainty.From the perspective of the global economic situation,the world today is undergoing major changes that are happening for the first time in the past century.In the post-epidemic era,as countries have adopted different economic policies during the epidemic,global instability and uncertainties have increased significantly.In this context,not only is the development of the global real economy facing serious challenges,the characteristics and impact of cross-border capital flows have also shown tremendous changes.At present,China's financial market opening has entered a critical period.In this process,China has always put the balance between financial openness and financial security in the first place.The way that we make full use of the favorable factors of financial market opening to promote the healthy and sustainable development of China's financial industry has been important research contents in the process of China's financial reform all the time.Among them,how to accurately analyze and estimate the economic effects of cross-border capital flows under the background of economic policy uncertainty,so as to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages,is a theoretical and practical question that needs to be answered urgently in the process of opening up China's financial market.Based on this,this dissertation focuses on three main core issues: First,what impact does cross-border capital flow have on economic development,real economic leverage,virtual economic stability,and other economic effects?Second,what is the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the economic effects of cross-border capital flows? Third,how to prevent the adverse effects of cross-border capital flows in the context of economic policy uncertainty? It is an issue of great significance and research of urgency for not only China but also other countries to make these relationships clear.Through discussion and analysis of the above issues,this dissertation seeks to provide a reference for China and other countries to prevent the risks of cross-border capital flows and formulate scientific and reasonable capital project opening strategies.This dissertation will be divided into eight chapters.It is arranged as follows:The first chapter is the introduction.This chapter starts with the development of international cross-border capital flows and their economic impact,as well as the background that economic policy uncertainty has gradually become the “new normal” in global economic development.Then the chapter proposes the significance of the research to explore the economic effects of cross-border capital flows under the background of global economic policy uncertainty.After this,the definition of the concept of cross-border capital flow and economic policy uncertainty will be provided.On this basis,the research design and methodology will be put forward,as well as the research content and the structure arrangement.Finally,the research innovations,difficulties and shortcomings of this dissertation will be explained.The second chapter is the literature review.This chapter mainly reviews,summarizes and concludes on related literature on the measurement and application of the index of economic policy uncertainty,the classification and measurement of cross-border capital flows,and the economic effects of cross-border capital flows,in order to systematically review the research findings related to this dissertation to establish an entry point.Regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macro and micro economy,the existing literature mainly studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic fluctuations,financial markets,policy effectiveness,and international spillover effects.Furthermore,regarding the economic benefits of cross-border capital flows,this dissertation sorts out existing studies from the aspects of economic development,real economic leverage,and virtual economic stability.There are three main deficiencies in the existing literature:(1)Regarding the researches on the economic benefits of capital flows,there are few existing literatures that consider changes in the global economic policy environment as a background factor,and there is a lack of research based on the uncertainty of global economic policies.(2)There is no universal measurement method for cross-border capital flow.(3)The number of studies on the economic benefits of capital flow,especially researches based on the scale,direction and fluctuation of capital flow is small.The third chapter is a theoretical analysis of the economic effects of economic policy uncertainty affecting cross-border capital flows.This chapter first analyzes the correlation between economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows.On this basis,this chapter further analyzes the adjustment effect of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between cross-border capital flows and economic development from a theoretical level,in order to clarify the relationship among the three matters.These theoretical analyses help to see through the appearance to perceive the essence to analyze the logical relationship between economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows and their economic effects,so as to provide theoretical support for the subsequent empirical analysis and policy advices.The fourth chapter is an analysis of the current situation of economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows.This chapter studies the current situation of economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows through the data and information gathering,sorting and statistically measuring related to cross-border capital flows and economic policy uncertainties,focusing on the specific circumstances of economic policy uncertainties,Including the construction and specific use of indicators.This chapter focuses on the basic characteristics of cross-border capital flows,including the characteristics of flows under specific projects,in order to provide a realistic basis for the proposal of policy implications.This chapter mainly analyzes from three aspects:(1)In the analysis of economic policy uncertainty,the emphasis is on the composition and performance of the economic policy uncertainty index used in this dissertation,including the global economic policy uncertainty index and single country's economic policy uncertainty index;(2)In the analysis of cross-border capital flows,this chapter uses the IMF's balance of international payments as the basis of analysis,and analyzes the outflow and inflow of capital flow items on the table;(3)This chapter analyzes the correlation between economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows.Based on the segmented performance of the global EPU index,it can be considered that in the process of increasing economic policy uncertainty,cross-border capital flows have also shown characteristics of amplification on a global scale.The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis of the impact of cross-border capital flows on economic development in the context of economic policy uncertainty.This chapter examines the impact of net cross-border capital outflows on economic development based on cross-panel data from 1970 to2019,and explores the role of global economic policy uncertainty.This chapter draws the following conclusions from the research:(1)The increase in the scale of net cross-border capital outflow will have a restraining effect on the country's economy.The net cross-border capital outflow will hinder economic development.(2)The results of heterogeneity analysis show that countries with low gross fixed capital formation,low financial institution efficiency,high foreign debt capital stocks,and high bank non-performing loan ratios,net cross-border capital outflows have a more significant negative impact on economic development;(3)Further analysis reveals that under the circumstance of greater uncertainty of global economic policy,the inhibitory effect of net cross-border capital outflow on a country's economic development will be greater,and the uncertainty of global economic policy will increase the negative impact of net cross-border capital outflow on economic development.In countries with low capital market openness,high macro-financial risks,and high financial institution development indexes,global economic policy uncertainty plays a greater role in regulating the relationship between net cross-border capital outflows and economic development.The sixth chapter is an empirical analysis of the impact of cross-border capital flows on real economic leverage under the background of economic policy uncertainty.This chapter conducts an empirical analysis based on the cross-panel data from 1970 to 2019,and explores the role of global economic policy uncertainty in it,so as to provide decision-making basis for different countries to formulate and implement corresponding policies.This chapter draws the following conclusions from the research:(1)The increase in the scale of net outflows will have a negative impact on the domestic macro leverage,while the increase in the volatility of cross-border capital flows will have a positive impact on the domestic leverage;(2)In terms of different sectors,the increase in the scale of net cross-border capital outflows will significantly reduce the leverage ratio of government sectors,and the increase in the volatility of cross-border capital flows will have a significant positive impact on the leverage ratio of privately-owned non-financial sectors;(3)The increase in global economic policy uncertainty will positively regulate the relationship between cross-border capital flows and macro-leverage.In a period of low global economic policy uncertainty,the increase in the volatility of cross-border capital flows will promote household sector leverage,corporate sector leverage,household and enterprise sector leverage and private sector leverage.The seventh chapter is an empirical analysis of the impact of cross-border capital flows on the stability of the virtual economy under the background of economic policy uncertainty.This chapter conducts an empirical analysis based on the cross-panel data from 1997 to 2017,and explores the role of global economic policy uncertainty in it,so as to provide decision-making basis for different countries to formulate and implement corresponding policies.This chapter draws the following conclusions from the research:(1)Cross-border capital flows do have an adverse effect on the stability of the virtual economy;(2)Different types of capital flows have a certain heterogeneity in the impact on the stability of the virtual economy;(3)Although in general,cross-border capital flows have an adverse effect on the stability of the virtual economy,in the context of uncertain global economic policies,cross-border capital flows can also show their positive side in favor of the stability of the virtual economy.The eighth chapter is the main conclusions and policy advices.This chapter summarizes the main research conclusions of the entire dissertation,and provides advices on the formulation and implementation of corresponding policies for China based on these research conclusions.Specific measures include: the orderly deregulation of capital projects;the strengthening of financial market construction;the rational utilization of cross-border capital to maintain an appropriate macroeconomic leverage;the strengthening of the financing risk management of transnational companies;the strengthening of international capital flow management and risk prevention;and the improving of the transparency of economic policies and the guidance capabilities of perspectiveness. |
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