Analysis Of The Impact And Mechanism Of ICT Capital Stock On The Economic Growth Quality

The quality of economic growth refers to the coordinated evolution of a series of inherent characteristics of economic growth and the process of economic development,which is mainly manifested in six aspects: economic efficiency,economic structure,stability,sustainability,economic welfare distribution and economic rights endowments.In the context of intensified international competition,China's economy is facing a lack of internal cyclical development momentum and prominent quality problems,Academic circles and policy makers concern that how to use ICT capital to overcome the "imitation trap" and improve the quality of economic growth.At present,factors such as the mismatch of human capital and the difficulties in the transformation of innovation structure have caused the slow transition of China's economy from "imitation innovation" to "independent innovation",which has become the main factor constraining high-quality economic growth.This article first theoretically analyzes how the imbalance in the allocation of innovation factors and the slow transformation of the innovation structure affect the high-quality growth of the Chinese economy;then,it examines the ways in which the increase in the stock of ICT capital promotes changes in the innovation factor endowment structure and high-quality economic growth;finally,it empirically tests that what is the mechanism of ICT capital stock affecting the quality of economic growth? Under the "New Kaldor Facts",this article focuses on the conversion of high-quality growth path of China's economy from "imitation innovation" to "independent innovation" through ICT capital accumulation,It will produce economic effects such as changes in the innovation structure,the allocation of innovative talents,the diffusion of technological innovation,and independent research and development.The relevant content is as follows:First,this paper constructs a multi-sectoral endogenous economic growth model and an inframarginal analysis model that include ICT capital stock.Based on the same entry point,the two models respectively reveal that ICT capital stock affects economic growth quality through the allocation of innovation factors and changes in innovation structure.The analysis results of the two models mutually confirm and complement each other,and more comprehensively reveal the transmission mechanism through which ICT capital stock affects the quality of economic growth.Unlike previous studies that only emphasized the importance of the allocation of innovation factors,this article uses an inframarginal model analysis to find that promoting the transformation of the innovation structure is an important path that cannot be ignored for high-quality economic growth in China;and innovatively proposes that only the full release of the innovation structure Dividends can realize the transformation of the high-quality growth path of China's economy from "imitation innovation" to "independent innovation".Secondly,We also recalculated the index of China's economic growth quality from2003 to 2017.During the inspection period,the quality of economic growth showed a fluctuating upward trend,but the rate of increase was relatively flat,there was a certain degree of synergy in the trend of changes in "quantity" and "quality" of economic growth.In terms of the specific dimensions of the quality of economic growth,the efficiency of economic growth is the most important engine that affects the quality of economic growth,which is basically consistent with the change trend of the economic growth quality in different periods;the contribution of the economic welfare distribution dimension is second;The contribution of economic rights endowment is the lowest.Regionally,the economic growth quality index of the eastern,central,and western regions all fluctuates and rises,but it is still a "high to low" regional distribution state.The eastern region has the highest economic growth quality and the central region has the higher quality than the western,but the scale of economic growth is not consistent with the regional changes in the quality of economic growth.At the same time,this article uses data from the input-output tables of various regions in China,and uses PIM to cautiously measure China's inter-provincial ICT capital stock.The estimation results show that the stock of ICT productive capital in my country from 2003 to 2017 has risen sharply at an average annual rate of 19%,showing a continuous and rapid upward trend.Regionally,the stock of ICT productive capital presents an obvious tiered distribution pattern from high to low in the eastern,central,and western regions.From the perspective of the nuclear density distribution of ICT productive capital stock per labor in the region,the eastern part shows a clear unimodal distribution pattern,and the distribution of ICT capital stock per labor is more even;the central region shows a bimodal pattern,while the western region also has a bimodal pattern.The unimodal distribution pattern,but the skewness,indicates that the central and western regions have a phenomenon of "club convergence" at a lower stock level.Third,using China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017 to investigate the direct impact of ICT capital on the quality of economic growth.Research shows that every 1% increase in ICT capital in China can promote a 1.9%-3.1% improvement in the quality of economic growth.However,the capital deepening effect of ICT has quantile heterogeneity,and the scale of the capital stock of ICT is too low or too high to promote the quality of economic growth.In the specific dimension of the quality of economic growth,the impact of ICT capital is mainly realized through its impact on growth efficiency,structure and economic rights endowments,and ICT capital has the greatest impact on the efficiency of economic growth.In terms of regional differences,the capital deepening effect of ICT is not consistent with the change trend of investment increments,resulting in more reasonable investment of ICT capital in the east and central regions,but there may be inefficient investment in the west.Forth,the intermediary test shows that the diffusion effect of technological innovation,the effect of innovative talent allocation,and the effect of independent research and development are important channels for ICT capital to improve the quality of economic growth.The effect of innovative talent allocation plays a leading role in the relationship between the two.The allocation of innovative talents strengthens the Changes in the cost of innovation and changes in the structure of factor endowments,internal incentives to improve the quality of economic growth,this intermediary effect is still stable after considering endogenous issues and robustness issues;the dynamic threshold model estimation results show that the diffusion of technological innovation and the allocation of innovative talents The process by which ICT capital affects the quality of economic growth has a moderating effect.As the diffusion of technological innovation crosses the threshold,the impact of ICT capital investment on the quality of economic growth presents an "inverted U-shaped" characteristic,changing from its role in promoting the quality of economic growth In order to restrain the effect;the allocation of innovative talents also has a significant threshold effect.Only when the allocation of innovative talents does not exceed the threshold,ICT capital investment has a significant positive impact on the quality of economic growth.When the allocation of innovative talents crosses the threshold,this effect becomes insignificant.Finally,this article proposes four countermeasures based on the research conclusions,focusing on the regional heterogeneity of ICT capital accumulation,narrowing the gap in economic growth quality;strengthening the investment complementarity between ICT and production factors,and enhancing regional independent innovation capabilities;using ICT capital accumulation Optimize the factor endowment structure,improve the incentive mechanism for independent innovation;use ICT capital to stimulate the endogenous power of institutional innovation,promote the improvement of the quality of economic growth,and provide a useful reference for the use of strategic emerging industry investment to promote the internal circular economy and high-quality economic development.