Research On The Economic Conduction Effect Of Intelligent Service Industry

In the 21 st century,under the hard constraints of global resources and the environment,the modern service industry which has the knowledge-intensive and high value-added high-tech features is rising rapidly.It becomes one of the major growths in the new economy.In order to implement "Made in China 2025 ",the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,the National Development and Reform Commission,and the Chinese Academy of Engineering jointly formulated the "Special Action Guide for the Development of Service-Oriented Manufacturing" in July 2016.The key points are as following.First,grasp the new trend of intelligent services.Second,explore a new model of intelligent services.The third is to cultivate new capabilities in intelligent services.The intelligent service industry is mainly a network-based service industry based on information and communication technologies(ICT)such as mobile Internet,cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.The intelligent service industry in this paper includes both service formats that are innovated with technological development and social progress,as well as traditional service industries that use modern technologies,especially modern information and communication technologies to transform,integrate and upgrade,which provide services for the entire economy.Intelligent services such as information and digital resources.Conceptually,the material structure of the intelligent service industry is a network-based industry.Information,knowledge,and technology are digital resources flowing in the industry.Intelligence is the process and driving force for material change.Due to the promotion of industrial integration,the internal industrial structure of the service industry has been continuously optimized,and the status of the intelligent service industry in the modern service industry has become increasingly prominent.It has become the strategic peak of global industrial competition.As a representative of the modern service industry,the intelligent service industry has a positive effect on leading the adjustment and upgrading of the traditional industrial structure and transforming the economic growth model.Especially in the new normal situation of weak economic growth,it urgently demands the development of the intelligent service industry.The intelligent technology supported by the intelligent service industry is technology and knowledge.It is an endogenous variable and is in line with the increasing law of marginal utility.At the same time,intelligent technology has strong “externality”,“diffusion” and “lagging” due to network effects.Economic growth theory cannot explain and measure their contribution to economic growth.This paper attempts to explore the information,knowledge and intellectual resources that rely on the carrier of the intelligent service industry to distinguish it from the operation mode of the traditional service system.We also study the economic effects generated,and the transmission and influence mechanism of the soft elements to the industrial sector and the entire economic system.Main logic of this study is as following: the development of intelligent services industry,economic environment and behavior characteristics of economic entities—three kinds of conduction effect mechanism of the impact of intelligent services industry to economic growth — the balanced result of the interaction between intelligent services industry and economic growth.We use two dimensions of industrial transformation effect,diffusion and lagging effect in production and conduction effect in consumption to explain the transmission mechanism and empirical research of the development of intelligent service industry to economic growth.In this paper,we are using a combination of empirical analysis(Chapters fourth-seventh)and normative analysis(Chapter eighth),static analysis(Chapter fifth)and dynamic analysis(Chapters fourth,sixth,seventh),statistical analysis(Chapter fifth)and comparative analysis(Chapters third,fourth),equilibrium analysis(Chapters fourth,seven)and network analysis methods(Chapters fifth and sixth).Tool variable regression,threshold regression,panel VAR model,dynamic panel model,and panel quantile regression were used in the measurement method.This paper mainly attempts to study four aspects of the content.Firstly,intelligence as the second stage of the development of information technology,this paper explains the unique operating laws of intelligent service industry and its economic conduction effect with the help of network economics,industrial economics and economic growth theory of the relevant research basis and theoretical basis.In the part of literature review,we review the literature of network economics,industry transformation,diffusion and lagging effect,consumption conduction effect,and the corresponding theoretical basis of Metcalfe's rule.Moore's Law,New Economic growth Theory,knowledge output Model and Intermediate sector Model,Gill's Law,this part is the theoretical basis of empirical research in Chapter4-7.The conduction mechanism begins with the economic characteristics of the intelligent service industry,and describes the operating rules of the production,exchange,distribution and consumption of the intelligent service industry different from the traditional industry from different aspects.Secondly,the relationship between the intelligent service industry and the traditional information and communication technology industry,whether the "Productivity Paradox" put forward by Solow against the ICT industry also exists in the intelligent service industry at that time.The transmission mechanism part draws lessons from the "Productivity Paradox" in the third industrial revolution caused by ICT industry,and the special economic phenomenon under the action of ICT industry,such as "two high and two low" and so on.Firstly,the transmission mechanism of industrial transformation of intelligent technology innovation,the diffusion and lagging transmission mechanism of intelligent service industry to economic growth and the transmission mechanism of intelligent service consumption to economic growth are expounded in detail.The fourth chapter studies the role of "Capital Deepening" in the influencing factors of the development of China's intelligent service industry by means of tool variables.Then II(IDI),an information development index compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics,is used to study the threshold effect of information development on the intelligent service industry with the help of panel threshold model.The paper tries to clarify the relationship between the capital deepening,the informatization and the development of the intelligent service industry.Thirdly,under the current economic "New Normal" running situation,economic growth is weak.whether the intelligent service industry can renew the myth of ICT industry,the intelligent service industry becomes one of the new driving forces leading the economic growth.In the empirical part,this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the economic conduction effect of the intelligent service industry,and tries to prove the result that the intelligent service industry integrates the economic conduction effect and the economic equilibrium effect of the new economic operation law of ICT industry.In the fifth chapter,the industrial transformation effect of intelligent service industry is demonstrated by using the index of industrial rationalization and industrial upgrading as the tool variable and differential GMM as the tool variable and the lag-first order of the explained variable as the tool variable.Chapter 6 uses panel VAR(Vector autoregressive)to study the diffusion effect of intelligent technology on the total factor productivity(TFP)of the intelligent service industry itself and the industrial sector with the help of the Feder two-sector model.Then the dynamic panel sys-GMM(system generalized moment estimation)regression is used to investigate the influence of economic environment on the development of intelligent service industry and lag effect in China.In Chapter 7,the panel quantile regression method is used to study the influence of conduction effect on the consumption of intelligent service in urban and rural residents and the degree of the influence of the quantile stage,so as to demonstrate the consumption conduction effect of intelligent service industry.Finally,after systematic research and analysis,the conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations of this paper mainly include: First,the development of China's intelligent service industry presents a phase change in time and an imbalance in spatial distribution.It is of great importance to clarify the positioning of the regional intelligent service industry development stage and seek new impetus for economic growth.Second,there is a threshold effect between the intelligent service industry and the development of information technology.Reduce the spatial differences in the intelligent service industry to avoid the “Digital Divide”.Third,the impact of the intelligent service industry on industrial upgrading is better than the impact on industrial rationalization.It is of vital importance to promote the development of intelligent service industry and guide the transformation and upgrading of the industry.Fourth,it takes 2-5 years to realize the diffusion effect of intelligent services industry to the economic growth.It is important to strengthen the leading edge of intelligence and promote the deep integration of industrialization and intelligence.Fifth,the economic environment lags effect on the development of intelligent services industry.We should try to improve it by the intellectual property protection and common technical support system.Sixth,the factors affecting the consumption of intelligent services by urban and rural residents in China vary and are subject to phase changes.It is essential to cultivate intelligent service consumer demand and expand smart service consumption space.