Study On Price Conduction Between Coal And Electricity Based On The Price Conduction Networks

With the national market economic development, especially the coal industry market advancement, the conflict between the Coal and the Electric Power industry, which are up and down stream industries conjoined tightly, gets more and more acute and focuses on how to define the electric-coal price. The government balanced the benefit and the harm of the Coal and the Electric Power industries and selected the Coal-Electricity Price Linkage policy. Although the policy solved the problem partly and presently, scholars evaluated the policy differently and it is urgent to consider how to solve the Coal and the Electric Power industry relationship in the future. The existing research analyze the problem in the view of the Coal or the Electric Power industry, which is difficult to integrate the Stakeholders'benefits and puts forth a full-scale, theory supported and practical strategy.Based on the academic research and practical analysis, the paper analyzed the Coal and Electric Power industry as a subsystem of the whole economic system. According to the theories of exhausted resource product price and the situation of China coal price and the importance of China coal market to international coal market and energy market, the paper put forth the objective of meeting China coal price with international market price. The electricity price is defined by price conduction between the Coal and Electric Power industry and suffering ability of down-stream industries. The paper analyzed systemically the factors influence the price conduction between the Coal and Electric Power and advanced to confirm the electricity price according to down-stream's suffering ability due to many factors, such as coal transportation and electric power market structure, are unchangeable in short term.Based on price conduction theories and China price conduction situation, the paper introduced the Complexity Networks research thought and exercised the research methods of Mathematics Modeling and Computer Simulating and with a great deal of tests established Price Conduction Networks Model and Evolvement Model including 76 industries. The price conduction networks are a directed -weighted-network. The price conduction relationship between industries is decided by the total consume coefficient, profit ratio of down-stream industry, supply and demand situation of down-stream industry and price conduction coefficient.The Price Conduction Networks imitate the fact well. Based on the Price Conduction Networks the paper finds that the conduction intensity and the main conduction scale of the electricity price are bigger than the coal's and finds the key route of the coal, electricity and coal-electricity price conduction, and locates the Core Conduction Layer, Second-degree Conduction Layer and the Brim Conduction Layer of coal and electricity industries, according to the price conduction intensity of coal and electric power industry to other industries, which are useful for observing and controlling coal-electricity price conduction.Finally, with the established model and Scene Analysis Methods the paper simulated and forecasted the two different linkage scenes that the coal and electricity price rise with the same proportion and with the different proportions that maybe occur in coal-electricity price linkage policy. It is definite that the rising in coal and electricity price, especially in the electricity price, can raise the down-stream industries'price and the price of the Core Conduction Layer rise stably while the price of the Brim Conduction Layer fluctuate abnormally, which prove the importance for the government to regulate the electricity price.According to the research and the simulating, the paper insists on opening the coal market and regulating the electricity price. The regulating price level can be defined with the price conduction networks simulating. The government should speed up the Electric Power Industry marketlization and reform the price conduction influence factors and establish the basement for the coal and electricity price's market linkage.