| As the important task among the three tough battles,preventing and defusing financial risks is relevant to national security and overall development,and is a key threshold that the country must cross to achieve high-quality growth.It is the primary task for finance at present and in the future.After the attack of global financial crisis in 2007,systematic and regional risk gets the most attention.So far,there have been many intensive studies on systematic financial risk,while studies on regional financial risks is deficient and needed.Regional financial risk and systematic financial risk always appear together because of their relevance,while their difference is often ignored.It is necessary to figure out their relation to get better performance at financial risk prevention.Considering the core position of finance in economic growth,regional financial risk can somewhat reveal the risk of regional economic growth.Thus,it is very important to understand the relation between regional financial risk and economic growth,especially the transmission route of risk between finance and economy.Moreover,the big difference in economic growth among provinces calls for this study.This paper aims to analyze the correlation between regional financial risk and economic growth.Using data of China's 31 provinces from 2008 to 2017,it establishes the measurement of regional financial risk by quantitative analysis and comparative analysis of time series data on reconstructed CAMELS indicators,and constructs the measurement of economic growth by three-dimensional-analysis of factor,institution and relation.Based on these two independent analysis,it then tests the mutual effects of regional risk and economic growth using ANOVA,mixed OLS and fixed effect model.Enterprise and resident leverage are chosen as the intermediate variable to analyze the transmission route of risk between finance and economy.Then this paper build a theory-consistent model to derive the relationship between endogenous bank leverage and the over-borrowing of enterprise and government.The results try to illustrate the characters of the mutual effect,and thus provide some advises to coordinate the implementation of economic growth and regional financial-risk-prevention.This paper gives new ideas to analyze the correlation among regional financial risk,regional economic growth mode and credit leverage.Theoretically,I use the entrustingdeputizing theory and adverse selection model to describe internal mechanism of regional financial risk.To refine regional financial risk,I screen the typical samples of regional financial risk,give description about the characteristics of regional financial risk on both systematic and regional perspective.Specifically,this paper's content and main findings can be summarized as follow:First,this paper uses adjusted CAMELS to measure the regional financial risk,weights of indicators in CAMELS are refined by subjective calculation.I use the time-series sample of 31 provinces,which is more comprehensive and systematic than previous studies.Second,the measurement of regional economy growth is constructed by factor,institution and relation.The result is resorted into eight types based on the perspectives of resource-capital-technology,market-and-government and endogenous-and-exophytic type.Further analysis is made on sequential change and difference among east,middle and west areas.Third,the study of credit leverage transmission is divided into enterprise leverage,government leverage and resident leverage.The analysis of enterprise leverage is subdivided by enterprise scale.I also pay attention on Enterprises from government financing platform,state-owned business and real estate.In the part of resident leverage,I focus on mortgage loans and consumer debt in real estate.Meanwhile,the paper theoretically analysis the correlation between loan leverage and regional financial risk.Forth,in the part of empirical analysis,I firstly use analysis of variance to figure out the effects of regional economy development mode on regional bank risk factor.And then,run mixed-OLS model to retest the effect,and try to find the transmission mechanism.Secondly,I analyze the transmission mechanism between credit leverage and regional financial risk by VAR test,using four intermediate variables: large-scale enterprise,medium-sized enterprise,small-and-micro enterprise and residents.The model also tests the relation between enterprise leverage and resident leverage.The tests find that regional financial risk in our country get various characters,while the economy development mode among different regions tend to be the same.Furthermore,financial risk in different economy development mode is quite different,and economy variables play different roles on regional financial risk.Based on those findings,this paper tries to give some advice to defuse financial risk from three aspects:firstly,defusing regional financial risk should be implemented according to different situations and still emphasize on comprehensive improvement.Secondly,deepen reform and opening up is needed to defuse concentration risk.Finally,harmonious development can be done without de-leverage. |
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