Research On Regional Financial Risk Index

Finance is the key core of modern economy,and the coordinated development of regional finance is an important link in the coordinated development of regional economy.The free flow of financial elements oriented by capital returns will accompany the accumulation and diffusion of financial resources to form spatial differences in regional finance.This is an objective phenomenon of regional financial practice.Each region may have some regional financial risks in its regional financial practice.Regional financial risks are initially caused by some economic entities in a certain region carrying out economic activities related to financial practices.Due to the networking and permeability of the financial relationships of various economic entities,there is a tendency to accelerate the linkage and self-propagation of these financial risks.Once the risk overflows beyond the original controllable regional boundary and forms a cross-regional contagion path,systemic financial risks are easily formed.Therefore,in order to effectively monitor and resolve regional financial risks early,it is necessary to conduct a systematic study on the transmission mechanism of regional financial risks,so as to clarify the source of regional financial risks,establish a scientific and effective evaluation and early warning system,and help relevant supervision.Departments and governments at all levels shall implement early warning and early disposal to prevent the continuous spread of risks and avoid major financial crises.The current international socioeconomic and financial environment is facing increasing uncertainty,trade protectionism is on the rise,and "black swan" and "gray rhino" incidents occur frequently.At the same time,the problem of structural contradictions in the domestic economy is still very prominent,especially under the influence of the "three-phase superposition",the downward pressure on the economy is greater,and the hidden risks in the financial sector in various regions and industries have gradually emerged.In view of the many potential risk sources that may be hidden in regional financial practices,the existing regional financial risk measurement and monitoring system is not perfect.Therefore,in order to expand the limitations of existing research involving measurement methods and monitoring timeliness,this research combines the characteristics of specific financial practices in each region to carry out a comprehensive and systematic summary of the existing regional financial risk monitoring and early warning system.The ultimate goal It is to provide evidence-based guidance for local governments when facing regional financial risk supervision.At the same time,the continuous emergence of new financial products and service innovations may quickly accumulate new financial risks,and it is not easy to be early-warned by supervision.These have aroused widespread consensus and concerns from all walks of life.This research also takes this new situation into consideration,and takes into consideration when designing a realistic regional financial risk monitoring and early warning system.The overall framework of this article is divided into 8chapters.The specific structure is as follows: Chapter 1,Introduction;Chapter 2,Theoretical basis of regional financial risk and its literature review;Chapter 3,Regional financial risk transmission mechanism and visual analysis map;Chapter Four,Regional Financial Risk Index Design and Measurement Method;Chapter Five,Empirical Analysis of Typical Regional Financial Risk Index;Chapter Six,Risk Pressure Identification and Early Warning Model Construction Based on Regional Financial Risk Index;Chapter Seven,Countermeasures against regional financial risks;Chapter 8,Conclusions and Prospects.The main conclusions of this paper can be divided into three aspects:First,this research takes into account the dual perspectives of the region and the region,and takes the four major sectors of economic operation as the main research objects,roughly covering the public sector,the corporate sector,the household sector,and the financial sector.The clues summarized a complete and systematic regional financial risk transmission mechanism.Second,the design and optimization of the regional financial risk index model,and the actual calculation of the regional financial risk index was carried out by selecting typical regions.This research selects five dimensions related risk indicators of government departments,corporate departments,real estate industry,households,and financial sectors as the basic indicator pool;on the basis of traditional models,we will further build a sub-model of search index risk measurement based on big data.It is to analyze the degree of Internet users’ attention to keyword search and its continuous changes,and then optimize the aforementioned traditional index model.The study found that both the traditional model and the optimized model pointed out that the three provinces of Gansu Province,Shanxi Province,and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have high regional financial risks during the observation period,which deserves continuous attention.It is generally believed that this is related to the level of economic and social development of these provinces.Industry structure is related.Third,the construction of risk pressure identification and early warning model based on regional financial risk index.The pressure identification index for measuring regional financial risks can effectively identify periods of high financial risk,and reflect the regional financial risk pressure identification index values of 26 provincial administrative regions from 2009 to 2018 on the map,which is the same as the previous research findings,Shanxi Province,Gansu Province,and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are in a period of high risk and pressure for a long time.Further to meet the need for early warning of regional financial risks.This research expands the application of "BP artificial neural network model" and "deep learning model" to the regional financial risk early warning system.The model meets the basic requirements of early warning.It tries to conduct early warning tests on the regional financial risk status of various regions in 2019,and they are basically in a safe state.The main innovations of this article can be summarized into the following three aspects:First,it has mastered a large amount of realistic materials by means of on-site research,and sorted out a more complete and systematic regional financial risk transmission mechanism.In the analysis of the regional financial risk transmission mechanism,based on the realistic background that various regional financial practices may encounter risks,the four major economic sectors of the economic operation subject are taken as the main analysis objects,revealing the integrity and systemic risk transmission mechanism.Existing studies mostly start from the perspective of a single economic sector,focusing on the financial sector,and lack an in-depth understanding of the internal relationship between the economic operation of each sector and financial risks.At this time,the sources of risks within the sector are not deep enough,and the risk transmission mechanism between sectors is not enough.comprehensive.This research conducted on-site investigation and understanding of relevant enterprises in different economic sectors,and mastered a large amount of research materials.Second,based on massive internet data,the traditional regional financial risk index model was optimized.In the process of constructing the regional financial risk index model,it must conform to the actual financial practice of various regions,which is of great practical significance for the construction of regional financial risk measurement and monitoring and early warning systems.The indicators used in previous studies were mostly based on traditional basic indicators,and the data were derived from static statistical data.Perhaps the biggest shortcoming was the lack of ability to grasp the dynamic evolution trend of financial risks.The massive Internet data resources have the advantages of big data,which can be fully exploited and used to effectively analyze the real-time dynamic advantages of risks,so as to make up for the aforementioned shortcomings of traditional basic indicators.This study compares the actual measured index values of each region based on the traditional index model and the optimized index model in order to more accurately reflect the actual regional financial risk conditions faced by all regions.Thirdly,it has enriched the methods of regional financial risk early warning.Based on the construction of regional financial risk pressure identification index,this study tried to use the "BP neural network model" and "deep learning model" methods to early warning regional financial risks in various regions.In order to prevent and resolve regional financial risks and systemic financial risks,it is necessary to achieve "early",which requires the establishment of a financial risk early warning system.This research uses the "BP neural network model" and "deep learning model" methods to carry out risk warning work.Previously,there are not many studies on the application of sub-methods at the regional level.This method has expanded the construction of regional financial risk early warning systems.It also provides effective means for relevant regulatory authorities to monitor risks.