Construction And Demonstration Research On Index System Of Regional Financial Risk Warning In Shanxi Province

Under the background of China's economic development entering a "new normal" and the state's "three reductions,one reduction and one subsidy",how to ensure that regional and systemic risks do not occur has become even more important and timely warning and prevention of regional financial risks have become the focus of attention in the research field focus.Regional financial risk is middle level financial risk,which is the financial risk faced by the financial industry in a certain economic region.Based on the new perspective of the regional financial risk transmission channels,it is imperative to build a real-time,targeted and practical financial risk early warning indicator system.In theory,this paper uses the index coefficient method as a guide.In practice,from the perspective of the traditional resource province Shanxi Province,through the qualitative analysis of the theory and practice and the quantitative analysis of the Markov-state transition method,this paper selects the regional macroeconomic,regional Micro-finance and external economy and finance,and constructed the index system of early-warning of financial risk based on Shanxi Province.Based on this,the regional financial risk index was synthesized and the Markov state transition model was used to pre-warning the change of index status.The results show that the average NPL ratio,long-term loans / total loans,regional GDP growth rate,regional fixed asset investment growth rate,cumulative regional CPI year-on-year,the weighted average 7-day interest rate of the national inter-bank borrowing market,Rate 7 indicators on the risk index most prominent.The state of financial risk index has some persistence,but its stability is poor.If t is in low risk state,the probability of t + 1 in low risk state is 0.68,and the probability of 0.32 goes to high risk state;and if t Period is in a high risk state,the probability of high risk in t + 1 is 0.73,the probability of 0.27 turns to low risk,and the persistence of high risk is stronger,and due attention should be paid to it.Using the data from 1Q 2007 to 4Q15 early warning,it is found that the financial risk in Shanxi Province tends to decline in 2016 and 2017,which agrees with the actual situation.The accuracy of the early warning system is verified.Based on the theoretical research and empirical analysis,it is found that the sources of regional financial risk are mainly the overheated development of regional macroeconomics and macroeconomy.With the expansion of credit,the investment increases and the risks gradually gather,causing the regional financial risks to increase.Therefore,long-term measures to ensure that the bottom line of regional financial risks do not occur are deepening the economic and financial reforms,enhancing the early-warning capability of regional financial risks,improving micro-prudential regulation,improving macroeconomic regulation and control,and improving the bank's internal control system.