| The livelihoods of poor people living in rural areas of Punjab and Sindh of Pakistan depends largely on cotton crop,which is considered as major and cash crop in Pakistan.1.3 million farmers(out of a total of 5 million)cultivate cotton over 3 million hectares,covering 15 per cent of the cultivable area in the country.Cotton products export account for 55 percent of all foreign exchange earnings of the country.Nearly 26 percent of farmers grow cotton,and over 15 percent of total cultivated area is devoted to this crop,with production primarily in two provinces.Cotton production accounts for 4.5 percent of the value added in AGDP and 0.8 per cent of GDP.It serves as the raw material for the textile industry,the country's largest agro-industrial sector,employs 17 percent,earns 60 percent of foreign exchange,and contributes 8.5 percent to GDP Pakistan is the fourth largest producer of cotton in the world,the third largest exporter of raw cotton,the fourth largest consumer of cotton,and the largest exporter of cotton yarn.The better quality of cotton and high yield per hectare is not only the urgent need of local people but also important for the Pakistan's economy.The present study estimated Total Factor Productivity(TFP)growth of Pakistan's cotton crop and impact of climate change factor on cotton total factor productivity,by using ARDL method for the period 1971-2018.Previously published research indicated that overall productivity of cotton crop is relatively low in Pakistan.But there is few in-depth research on the major causes of slow growth of cotton crop in Pakistan.Additionally,Existing studies analyze cotton production efficiencies based on virtual estimates to break down the various sources of productivity,which cannot obtain satisfactory implications,particularly for Pakistan that have relatively low output of cotton crop despite being top-ranked cotton producers.During this study key question was that what are the major factor that hinders the growth of cotton crop.During the study there were three main objectives: understanding the fluctuating trend of cotton growth in Pakistan: second examine multiple sources of cotton production to identify those main crop inputs that have been inefficiently used over time by tracking efficiency changes and technological changes in overall productivity from practical aspects,i.e.,scaling non-constant returns of those multiple sources would allow violation of various situations: Third to investigate the relationship between climate change variables and non-climate change variables on the Pakistan cotton productivity over 1971-2018.The data of climate change variables were used to find the impact of climate changes on TFP of cotton crop.The main idea of this research is based on previous literature review,and the implementation of theories of economic growth,in term of agriculture,and importance of cotton crop for Pakistan's economy.Based on empirical analysis by using ADF method,it is determined that cotton crop is an important source of Pakistan's economy.Accordingly,a stochastic frontier approach was employed to decompose the changes in total factor productivity(CTFP)using time series data of Pakistan's cotton production from 1971-2018 — a specific cotton perspective,a top-ranked cotton-producing country that has recently been shifted from exporter of raw cotton to become a raw cotton importer.Additionally,an econometric technique,"Auto-regressive distributed lag model"(ARDL),was employed to explore the existence and nature of the relationship among variables of Pakistan.Finally,taken some suggestions from Chinese literature to propose policy,recommendations to improve the cotton growth In Pakistan.For the assessment of the objective of this research,established the logical points and analytical framework.By reviewing the previous published literature review,economic theories,the concept of connotation,analytical and measurement method of cotton TFP,and logical point and analytical framework of this study is determined.By using the combination of different empirical methods,ADF,SFA and ARDL approaches,systematically measured the overall trend of cotton growth across the country and composition of TFP,analyzed in-depth changes,fluctuating trend in different years in cotton growth.Based on the theoretical analysis of climate variations relationship with cotton production and growth,the time series data is used to empirically test and reveal the impact of climate change variables on cotton total factor productivity and discussed the influence of climate changes on cotton productivity.Pakistan's economy relies heavily on its cotton and textile sectors.During the sample period the results of co-integration revealed that there exists a long-term positive relationship between output of cotton crop,and agricultural gross domestic product of Pakistan.Therefore,it is also considering a basic major crop of Pakistan's agriculture growth.The empirical results indicate that the possible ways of transformation of cotton growth is the best possible and realistic choice for the improvement of agriculture growth and to maintain the growth rate of economy.During the sample period the average annual TFP growth of agriculture was estimated to be 3.27 percent.The result of empirical measurement show a 15% decrease in average productivity growth over five decades years.The results also indicated that TFP growth of cotton crop was highest(7.31 percent)from 1980 s while lowest(1.31percent)during the decade of 2000 s.The decades of 1970 s,1990s and 2010 s registered average TFP growth rate of cotton crop 2.25,2.78 and 2.46 percent,respectively.The analysis of TFP growth during different time periods revealed that fluctuations in the total factor productivity growth were due to public interventions,macroeconomic policies,and weather conditions.Additionally,Technological innovations have greatly shaped agriculture throughout time.Result of elasticity revealed that progress in agriculture technologies,infrastructural changes is a driving force for the cotton growth.Overall decomposition of cotton total factor productivity is in violate trend each year.The coefficient of fertilizers,irrigation,electricity,in cotton production is statistically negative that implies that cotton production faces diminishing return to scale that means 1% increase in the input of fertilizer,irrigation,electricity,and machinery would decrease the cotton productivity by 0.13%,1.9% 0.19% and 0.10,respectively.Therefore,seed,irrigation,and fertilizers quality should vastly improve to help farmers to increase cotton yield.Inverse elasticity of agriculture machinery is because of outdated,unmaintained machinery,which results in costly and repetitive maintenance.This puts a screeching halt on the overall agriculture production process including cotton,increases unplanned costs,and negatively impacts overall efficiencies.Existing literature review pointed out that advancement of agricultural technology is the core driving force of the current agricultural growth in the developed countries,yet in Pakistan agriculture sector remains less digitized compared with many other developed countries.Advances in machinery have expanded the scale,speed,and productivity of farm equipment,leading to more efficient cultivation of more land.Therefore,government should address this issue and agriculture sector should embrace a digital transformation enabled connectivity.The empirical results of ARDL revealed that increases in temperature and rainfall positively affect cotton productivity.The coefficients of Co2 have negative significant relation in long run,while in short run its non-significant which indicate that CO2 harms cotton productivity.The coefficients of temperature and rainfall were found significant and positive in the long-and short run.The coefficient for the variable of area,fertilizer,and seed consumption are significantly positive in long and short run.Increasing number of labor force had significant negative affect on TFP of agriculture.The variable of infrastructural changes was significantly and positively associated with productivity growth.Overall,the results showed that policies which promote technological advancement,improve infrastructural development,subsidy on seed,would lead to improve total factor productivity growth in Pakistan's agriculture.To validate the robustness of finding employed the dynamic ordinary least squares(OLS),cointegration regression estimation,and the series test.To conclude,the cotton crop is significantly affected by climate change subject to the region.Based on the whole research,result of empirical analysis,combined with the main problem exist in the growth of Pakistan's cotton crop and conclusion,this study suggests some recommendations to improve the cotton total factor productivity in Pakistan.The finding of this study urges policymakers to devise a comprehensive policy to mitigate the negative impression of climate changes and upsurge water conservation.Additionally,Government should take necessary steps to improve and promote the agriculture technology.Furthermore,it is imperative to adopt environmentally friendly production inputs and ways,to gain sustainable cotton productivity.It implies that policymakers need priority-based strategies for judicial use of synthetic fertilizers,irrigation,subsidy policy,and technology adoption,which could significantly improve the efficiencies of cotton productivity from same land resources.The analysis,being adaptable to other economies,would strategically facilitate designing and developing affordable technology-driven solutions and their customized extensions towards sustainable cotton production practices and Agri-Resources efficiencies,particularly for developing countries.The innovation provides a comprehensive point of view on the fluctuation trends of Pakistan's cotton growth,and the impact of climate change on cotton production.This research used an empirical method combination of stochastic frontier and autoregressive distributed lag model to systematically measure the cotton growth and composition of total factor productivity of cotton crop.During the research,contribution of cotton crop in Pakistan agriculture gross domestic product,fluctuation trends of cotton growth,decomposition of total factor productivity,and impact of climate change on total factor productivity have been systematically evaluated.The source of Pakistan's cotton growth and its impact on Pakistan's economy have been clarified.Based on decomposition of Total factor productivity growth into technological progress and technological efficiency,this research decomposed the technological efficiency into pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency,and finally examines the growth and composition of Pakistan's cotton.At the end this study examined the relationship between cotton productivity and climate changes.To conclude,this research found that cotton production in Pakistan,which depend on climate,may be susceptible to future climate changes,and cotton crop is significantly affected by climate change.Additionally,it is revealed that the advancement in the infrastructural changes is the core driving force of the current cotton growth in Pakistan.The paper examines the impact of variables such as area,labor,infrastructural changes,seed,fertilizer,subsidy,average temperature,rainfall,and Co2 on cotton production.The study found that the deepening of material capital such as high quality of seed,fertilizer,and the increase of human capital specialized labor will significantly promote the growth of cotton crop in Pakistan.Expanded the analysis of the impact of climate factors on Pakistan cotton total factor productivity growth.This research tried to fill the gap by incorporating the climate factors that have not been considered in the existing literature research but have important influences on Pakistan's cotton Total factor productivity.Such as rainfall,temperature,co2.This research concludes that outdated agriculture technology,rigid system,low quality of seed,fertilizer,and changes in climate are the firmly established reasons for the insufficient and instable growth of cotton production in Pakistan. |
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