| China is facing the dual pressure of environmental protection and economic growth now.The construction of ecological civilization has become an important part of the cause,when building socialism with Chinese characteristics.Water resources are not only the key control factors of the ecological environment,but also an important component of strategic resources and comprehensive national strength.Driven by the green strategy and the dual-carbon banner,stable economic growth under the premise of water resources and environmental constraints must be solved in the short term.Moreover,the coordinated development of water resources,social economy and ecology must be achieved in the long run.Therefore,it is of great research significance and scientific value to formulate a reasonable water resource allocation plan to solve the problem of water supply and demand,and scientifically evaluate its health status to ensure the sustainable development of the water resources-social economy-ecological system.Aiming at the deficiencies in the field of water resources management and the practical problems faced by Guangdong Province in the effective utilization and optimal allocation of water resources,this study aims to improve the utilization rate of water resources and realize the sustainable development of the system.By deeply exploring the coupling relationship of water resources-social economy-ecological system,the state of water resources security in Guangdong Province is evaluated,and corresponding policy suggestions for water resources quality management are given.The basic concepts of water resources,social economy and ecology are analysed in-depth in this paper,as well as the coupling relationship of the water resources-social economy-ecological system.Moreover,the research boundaries of water resources and ecology are defined.The literatures related to water resources-social economy-ecological system of the optimal allocation and carrying capacity of water resources,and the health assessment and quality management are reviewed and analyzed.Based on system dynamics theory,Lotka-Volterra symbiosis theory and random variable correlation theory,the coupling relationship of mutual influence and co-evolution of various subsystems in water resources-social economy-ecological system is researched from the following three aspects:water supply and demand relationship,symbiotic relationship of coupling system and health assessment.Firstly,the causal relationship among various factors in the water resources-social economy-ecological system was analyzed and a feedback loop was established by using system dynamics theory.Based on the existing economic development model of Guangdong Province,seven typical water resource allocation proposals are designed.A nonlinear equation describing the system variables was obtained by selecting the appropriate parameters to fit the original data.A system dynamics model is established,and the model was tested for structural consistency and operational validity.Then,the change trend of the supply and demand ratio of water resources in Guangdong Province from 2021 to 2035 was simulated by using the system dynamics model.The results showed that the optimal allocation proposal for the balance of water supply and demand in Guangdong Province is the water resource allocation proposal that considers ecological factors.Secondly,the binary Lotka-Volterra biological population model was introduced and further extended to a ternary Lotka-Volterra symbiosis model.The discrete ternary Lotka-Volterra model was used to describe the coordinated development mechanism among the subsystems of the water resources-social economy-ecological system,and the symbiosis model of the water-resource-social economy-ecological system was established.The relevant data of water resources,social economy and ecology in Guangdong Province was calibrated by using the entropy weight method.An equal-weight optimization model that maximized the net benefit of water supply,minimized water shortages in the industry,and minimized the discharge of important pollutants was established.Considering the three constraints of supply and demand balance,water quality constraints and sustainable coordinated development,a coordination function was introduced to establish a new state transition probability control equation.Moreover,the symbiosis Index of the water resources-social economy-ecological system in Guangdong Province and nine major cities in the province were quantitatively calculated and the criterion of water security was determined by using the improved intelligent ant colony algorithm,which was compiled by the Python.And then the optimal allocation of water resources in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2019 was realized by the above improved ant colony algorithm.By comparing the optimal water demand and the actual water demand in the coordinated symbiosis state of Shenzhen,the correlation coefficient between the indicators of various industries and the water shortage rate was obtained.The results showed that the key factors affecting the risk index of water scarcity were residential water consumption,industrial water consumption,agricultural water consumption,public water consumption and ecological water consumption in terms of their importance.At last,based on 6resource allocation plans,the symbiosis index of water resources-social economy-ecological system in Shenzhen from 2021 to 2035 was predicted.The results showed that optimal proposal for the water resources allocation in Shenzhen was to increase the total water supply.Finally,the health assessment method of water resources-social economy-ecological system has been proposed.The grey relational degree and entropy weight method were used to measure the comprehensive grey relational degree of the water resources-social economic system at three levels of water resources supply,water pollution degree,and water treatment.By such means,the health assessment of the water resources-social economic system was completed.Based on the normalized index of water footprint and ecological footprint,the health assessment of water resources-ecological system was completed.Based on the rough set theory,the continuous original data were discretized,and the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weightof each index.According to the harmony degree calculation formula=,the harmony degree evaluation matrixwas calculated,and the water resources-social economy-ecological ternary coupling system health evaluation results of Guangdong Province were obtained.Choosing Gamma distribution,Weibull distribution,normal distribution and lognormal distribution,the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of water supply,social economy and ecology respectively.The normal distribution function was determined as the marginal distribution function.The Copula connection function was used to complete the joint probability analysis to gain the correlation coefficients of different subsystems.According to the optimization results of the symbiosis model of the coupled system,taking the optimal state corresponding to the largest symbiosis index of the ternary system as the benchmark scenario,and considering the relative importance of the risk indicators affecting water resources shortage,potential risks of water resources-social economy-ecological system quality management were estimated,and the water resources quality risk assessment characteristic model has been also established.Thus,a few corresponding administrative measures for water resource quality management were put forward,which could provide theoretical basis for government departments to formulate water resource quality management plans. |
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