Study On The Relationship Between Water Resources And Socio-Economic Coordinated Development Based On Coupling Coordination Model

The shortage of water resources,uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,mismatch in the layout of soil and water resources,and the mismatch between social and economic layout and water resource carrying capacity are becoming increasingly prominent,which seriously affects the sustainable and coordinated development of resources and economy.Therefore,it is one of the urgent problems in water resources management to analyze the matching degree between water resources and social economy,analyze the influencing factors that hinder their coordinated development,and provide scientific basis for the social and economic development suitable for water.Guided by the connotation of the coupling and coordinated development of the "water resources socio-economic" composite system,construct an evaluation index system for the coupling and coordinated development of the "water resources socio-economic" composite system in China.Through establishing coupling coordination degree model,the evolution law of the coupling and coordinated development relationship between water resources and socio-economic development in China is explored in both time and space,while the main obstacle factors affecting the coupling and coordinated development between both of them are further analyzed by means of obstacle degree function.Based on the analysis of China’s laws,Jilin Province is selected for further scenario analysis.Set water resource change conditions for different water inflow scenarios and different water diversion scenarios,and quantitatively analyze the impact of regional water resource condition changes on the coupled and coordinated development of composite system based on a coupling coordination degree model.The main results are as follows:(1)A evaluation index system for China’s has been constructed based on the criteria of water resource endowment,water resource utilization,social development,and economic level.The coupling coordination degree of China’s "water resources socioeconomic" composite system showed an upward trend in time,and its coupling coordination relationship was sequentially manifested in three stages: imbalance stage,transition stage,and coordination stage.Over the past 11 years,there were differences among different provinces in terms of spatial distribution.The trend of coupling coordination in 31 provinces showed three types: 26 provinces showed an "upward trend",Fujian,Tibet,and Zhejiang provinces showed a "stable trend",and Qinghai and Hainan provinces showed a "fluctuating trend".In 2020,all 31 provinces were out of the imbalance stage,with 19 provinces reached the level of coordinated development,while12 provinces were still in the transitional stage and were all areas of rapid socio-economic development.(2)There were obstacles to the coupling and coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic factors.In the water resources subsystem,the main obstacle factors that restrict the coordinated development of water resources and socioeconomic coupling were the per capita water resources,annual runoff depth,and per capita comprehensive water consumption.The main obstacle factors of the socioeconomic subsystem were the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry,population density,and per capita GDP.The obstacle factors that affected the coupling and coordinated development of China’s water resources socio-economic composite system appeared more frequently in the water resources subsystem,with the northern region being more significant.In the future,the country should prioritize adjusting the water use structure,maximize the efficiency of water resource utilization,and pay attention to water resource management.(3)Based on the evaluation index system in China,the indicators were optimized and adjusted,and the evaluation index system of Jilin Province was constructed.Scenario analysis was used to set different inflow and diversion scenarios.Under the current level of socio-economic development,the average coupling coordination degree of nine cities(states)in Jilin Province in low water year decreased by 18.7% compared with that in high water year.In 2021,Changchun City received 2.34 million cubic meters of water transfer,and its coupling coordination increased by 6.5%.The coupling coordination degree of Jilin City in the transfer out area decreased by 2.0%.The positive effect of the transfer in area was greater than the negative impact on the transfer out area.Analyze the water resource allocation in the eastern,central,and western regions of Jilin Province,and propose to strengthen the construction of inter basin water transfer projects within the province according to needs and possibilities.