Study On Adaptation Of Tea Production To Climate Change And Technology System In China

Tea(Camellia sinensis L),as one of the most important cash crops in China,plays an important role in increasing farmer’s income and guaranteeing the high quality of life.In the past 30 years,tea production in China has developed rapidly,but the tea industry is experiencing additional climate pressures of increasing frequent extreme weather and climate events,and it is urgent to take positive measures to deal with climate change.Exploring the present situation of the impact of climate change and rapid socio-economic development on tea development,summarizing the adaptation technology system of tea production concisely,and judging the influence of future climate change on the climate suitability of tea planting areas will be helpful to the upgrading adaptation technologies and the future development of tea industry.Based on the meteorological data from 1987 to 2017 and future climate scenario data,this study firstly analyzes the climatic suitability change trend of tea production at present and in the future,then clarifies the influence of climatic conditions on tea production,and further discusses the adaptation mechanism of tea production by combining the analysis of tea production data and socio-economic data.Baesd on this analysis,the current adaptation technology system is constructed by summarizing the current tea production technical measures.The main results are as follows:(1)Due to climate change,the temperature and precipitation in tea-producing area showed a fluctuating upward trend,among which the temperature increase in South Yangtze River Region was the largest at 0.377℃/10a,and the abrupt change time of the annual average temperature in each tea-producing area was around 2000.Climate change has a negative impact on tea production in China mainland with the obvious character of high tea climate suitability(>0.9)areas dropping from 45%to32%,corresponding with the suitability deceasing in eastern and southern of Southern China Region,western of Southwest China Region,and probably all Southern Yangtze River Region.But it could provide opportunities for enlarging the cultivating area through the suitability increased in the north.The area proportion of medium and low suitable areas(0.4-0.8)increased,which led to the increase of the area proportion of tea suitable planting areas and potential planting areas.At the same time,as the suitability of Northern Yangtze River Region increased,the theoretical planting boundary determined by climate moved northward,that is,climate change had a negative impact on tea production in the Chinese mainland,but climate warming effectively expanded the suitable area for tea planting.(2)According to the results of Max Ent simulation,in the future climate scenario,the area of the Optimal suitable area will decrease,while the areas of the Marginal and Medium suitable areas will increase,resulting in an increase in the suitable area(including Marginal,Medium suitable and Optimal suitable area).The increased areas are mainly distributed in the central and eastern Hubei Province,central Anhui Province,Jiangsu Province,southern Yunnan Province,and even northern Shandong Province and central Henan Province.Considering only climate factors,the tea production in Sichuan,Chongqing,Guizhou,Yunnan and Shandong and Henan provinces has great development opportunity.Therefore,these provinces should be given priority in the planning of tea production adaptability.(3)In the past 30 years,the tea production showed a trend of slow growth at first and then fast growth,with obvious regional differences.Tea production in Southwest Region has developed rapidly,with the proportion rising from 20.98%in 1987 to 36.03%in 2017,while the proportion of tea production in Southern Yangtze River and Southern China Region has gradually decreased.In actual production,tea planting expanded to north from 33 ~oN in 1987 to 35 ~oN in 2017 to take advantage of the warming,and decreased at an altitude of 100-400 m while increased to higher altitude of 400-2000 m to avoid hot temperature damage and seek the optimum environment on high mountainous areas.In addition,the tea production moved westward along longitude,decreasing obviously at 117-121°E while increasing significantly at 98-104°E and107-110°E.Meanwhile,tea production gravity center showed a westward movement consistent with the economic gravity moving trend,which was dominated by multiple elements including social-economic factors and climate conditions.Grey relational analysis shows that sales of tea and agricultural production value are highly correlated with tea yield.(4)The spatio-temporal change of tea production in China is the result of adapting to climate change under the rapid economic development.From the study of the interaction among tea production system,climate system and social system,it can be seen that the transfer of tea production to high latitude and high-altitude areas is to optimize the utilization of climate resources brought by warming and avoid the harm caused by the aggravation of climate disasters.However,the westward shift of tea production gravity center is the combined effect of social economy and climate change,which finally meets the demand of social economic development for high-quality tea production.Among them,tea production is the main part,and climate change has pushed the development of tea production.Social and economic development is the guarantee of adapting to climate change,and it is also the pulling the westward moving trend of tea production.The coordination of policy and technical measures effectively ensured the normal production of tea.(5)Building the adaptation technology system of tea production could construct a bridge between the existing technology and the adaptive goal,thus making clear the development direction of adaptation technology and providing theoretical support for decision makers and tea farmers.Through literature investigation,the technical measures taken to deal with freezing injury in tea production were reclassified according to the adaptation level and reaction time,and then the adaptation technical system was obtained through integration.For freezing damage,the core technology is to increase the temperature of tea garden,reduce the wind speed,and cooperate with auxiliary technologies such as fertilizer and water management,ecological construction,and variety change.On this basis,taking the construction of tea production adaptive technology system in Shandong Province as a case,the development suggestions of adaptive technology are further clarified,that is,the adaptation technology of tea production is still scattered at present,and the research on risk transfer and post-disaster management should be strengthened in the future.