Research On Investment Optimization And Game Of International Hydrocarbon Projects

With increasing risk of oil price,enhanced strength of Chinese oil companies,and more and more pressure of energy transformation,investment goal is becoming more diversified.How to handle diversified investment goals has become a key issue that oil companies need to address when investing in overseas oil and gas.In this regard,the optimization model for overseas oil and gas investment needs to address issues such as contradictions,externalities,and complexity.The internal connections between different variables are prone to contradictory issues;Optimization models often rely on given exogenous parameters,hardly considering the impact of games between various entities on parameter values;If there is a lack of multivariate merging process,there will be many parameters to be set,resulting in operational complexity.These issues are closely related to multiple variables,and it is necessary to improve investment optimization models to better handle diversified investment objectives.In this context,this paper studies the investment decision-making issues of international oil and gas projects,including investment potential evaluation methods,investment optimization methods,and investment game models.The investment potential evaluation method includes a comprehensive evaluation method of the investment environment and an economic evaluation method of the project,which correspond to the investment potential at the macro level and the micro level,respectively.Based on the investment potential evaluation method,the portfolio optimization method can compare different project portfolios,providing a direct reference for the final investment.Due to the fact that some parameters of the optimization model need to be determined during the game process between different entities,it is necessary to build a game model for oil and gas investment.Optimization models and game models interact to form an organic whole of investor decision-making methods.Based on the above research arrangement,the main research results of this article are as follows:First,a generalized comprehensive evaluation model suitable for the evaluation of investment environment of countries with oil and gas resource is established.Using the perspectives of algebra and geometry,this paper makes a comparative study on three main comprehensive evaluation models,and obtains the most proper comprehensive evaluation model.On this basis,a flexible and complete generalized comprehensive evaluation model is constructed by using the continuous adjustment of indifference curve,motion vector synthesis and three weighting process.First,a generalized comprehensive evaluation model for investment environment assessment in oil and gas resource countries has been established.Using the perspectives of mathematical expressions and geometric graphics,a comparative study of the three main existing comprehensive evaluation models was conducted to obtain the most realistic comprehensive evaluation ideas.On this basis,the flexible General Comprehensive Evaluation Model is constructed using continuous adjustment of indifference curves,motion vector synthesis,and the idea of cubic weighting.Second,the income evaluation method and risk evaluation method for international oil and gas investment projects are constructed.Given the diversity of decision-making needs and the uncertainty of parameters,and drawing on the idea of scenario analysis,the income evaluation model of international oil and gas projects is constructed.As for the risk assessment method,starting from the dual connotation of "risk",the "3σPrinciples" in statistics are used to estimate the distribution parameters of risk factors,by which the previous practice of setting parameters uniformly is revised.Third,the optimization model of international oil and gas project portfolio is established.Based on summarizing the essential problems and optimization principles of investment,using Markowitz Portfolio Theory,Pratt-Arrow Risk Aversion Measurement Theory,Mean-Variance Utility Theory,this paper analyzes the relationships of multi pairs of variables including income-risk,economic benefit-resource benefit,income level-investment scale and long term benefit-short term benefit.Based on the analysis of variable relationship and mathematical programming method,a portfolio optimization model of international oil and gas project is established.Considering the uncertainty of parameters and the demand for cooperative investment,an investment optimization model for the uncertainty of constraint boundary and resource allocation is further constructed.Fourth,based on the characteristics of international oil and gas mining rights auctions,an auction equilibrium strategy model is constructed.Based on research on the auction practices of oil and gas mining rights in multiple oil and gas resource countries,the characteristics of oil and gas mining rights auction are summarized.Based on this,using envelope theorem and general equilibrium theory,an equilibrium strategy model corresponding to any number of bidding companies and any value distribution interval is constructed.Based on the sensitivity analysis of various parameters,an optimal bidding model for oil companies with uncertain parameters is established using the equivalence principle,differential equations,expected revenue loss matrix,and utility value method.Fifth,bargaining model for international oil and gas projects is created.Based on the standard contract of auction platform,tax law,literature and project research experience,this paper systematically studies the negotiation issues such as negotiation space,bargaining object and bargaining status.Based on four basic assumptions,Bargaining Position Model in line with the axiom system of Nash Bargaining Model is constructed.Based on the Bargaining Position Model,five basic assumptions,Taylor Series Expansion,Expected Utility Theory,a widely applicable bargaining model including multiple bargaining position factors of oil and gas projects,namely Input-output Model,is constructed.Based on the project availability and systematic opportunity cost,an optimization-game iteration model is constructed to solve the endogenous problems of independent optimization model and game model.Through case analysis,the above research results may provide reference for the following oil and gas investment decisions: Strategic layout of international oil and gas resource investment;Preliminary screening of international oil and gas projects;Optimal equity in oil and gas project portfolio;The best quotation of oil and gas project auction;The negotiation position factors that should be improved;Negotiation objective setting of comprehensive income proportion in oil and gas project negotiation.