| Since the 18th CPC National Congress,General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed on many occasions that"we must properly handle the relationship between economic development and ecological environmental protection",and that"economic development and ecological progress complement each other".These important discussions have profoundly revealed that ecology and economy are the dialectical unity of mutual influence and interaction.Accelerating the coordinated development of ecology and economy is a profound understanding based on the historical experience and lessons of China’s long-term development path,and is also a comprehensive judgment that China’s economy has shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development.Promoting the coordinated development of ecology and economy has become an important measure to achieve sustainable development.The Dongting Lake Basin is an important area for biodiversity conservation,a high-yield commercial grain base in the south,and an ecological function area for flood regulation and storage of the Yangtze River.Under the background of the comprehensive implementation of the new development strategy of"joint efforts to protect,not to develop"and the adherence to the new development strategy of"ecological priority and green development",it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the coordinated development of the eco-economy in Dongting Lake Basin.Thesis in a systematic ecological origin-coordinated economic development evolution and the eco-economic coordinated development based on relevant theories,elaborated profoundly the coordinated development of the new era of eco-economic connotation,characteristics and inner mechanism,set up a scientific and comprehensive evaluation index system of Dongting lake watershed eco-economic coordinated development level.Based on the multi-scale space around the entire Dongting Lake basin,5 sub-basins,and 148 counties（cities and districts）,the coordinated eco-economic development level and its components at different spatio-temporal scales from 1995 to 2020 were comprehensively measured by using linear weighted comprehensive evaluation method.The variation coefficient and exploratory spatial analysis method were used to quantitatively analyze the difference and spatial correlation of eco-economy coordinated development levels at different spatial scales,to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution law of eco-economy coordinated development in Dongting Lake basin.On this basis,the obstacle degree model was used to judge the obstacle factors existing in the index layer of eco-economic coordinated development.At the same time,a variety of factors were selected to empirically analyze the influencing factors and spatial differences of eco-economic coordinated development using the spatial econometric model.Finally,the ARIMA-GM combined model was used to set up four future development scenarios for simulating and predicting the development trend of multi-scale（sub-basin and county）eco-economic coupling coordination degree in Dongting Lake basin from 2025 to2035,so as to explore the overall development trend of its coordinated development level from a macro perspective.The contribution of this thesis is mainly reflected in the following four aspects:firstly,from the holistic perspective of the basin,the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the level of eco-economic coordinated development are explored in the whole basin and in multiple time and space,highlighting the integrity and systematicness and expanding the research scale of the eco-economic coordinated development.The second is to expand the theory and method of coordinated development of ecology and economy using the interdisciplinary integration of ecological economics,resource and environmental economics,and spatial econometrics.Thirdly,the research is carried out from the multi-space perspective using the data at the micro-level and meso-level.Based on the research on 148 counties in 5sub-basins,this thesis reveals the level and temporal and spatial evolution of eco-economy coordinated development at different scales and further analyzes the influencing factors at different scales,which enrich the spatial level of eco-economy coordinated development research.Fourthly,the research system of"current situation characteristics—pattern evolution—influencing factors—development prediction"is incorporated into the whole analytical framework to scientifically,comprehensively,and objectively evaluate the level and influencing factors of eco-economic coordinated development in different regions of Dongting Lake Basin,for enriching the practical research of eco-economic coordinated development in the basin.It also provides new evidences for studying the influence of different factors on the coordinated development of eco-economy.At the same time,through the construction of ARIMA-GM combined model,the multi-scenario prediction of the coordinated development level of the eco-economy in Dongting Lake basin is carried out,and the overall development trend is explored from a macro perspective.The research method can provide a reference for similar studies.According to the research in this thesis,the following conclusions are drawn:1.From 1995 to 2020,the overall level of coordinated eco-economic development in Dongting Lake Basin showed an upward development trend,and the sub-indicators such as the economic development level index also maintained a growth trend,and the ecological environment status index experienced a fluctuating trajectory from"tortuous changes"to"steady growth".The eco-economic coupling coordination degree of the Dongting Lake Basin increased from 0.550 in 1995 to 0.827 in 2020,the coordination degree increased by 0.277 in25 years,and the coordinated development state gradually changed from the reluctant coordinated development stage in 1995 to the good coupling and coordination stage.During the study period,the coupling degree between the eco-economic systems of the Dongting Lake Basin generally moved towards a higher coupling stage,which increased from 0.633 in1995 to 0.991 in 2020,with an increase of 0.358.The state of the coupling degree developed from the run-in stage to the high-quality coupling stage.2.From 1995 to 2020,both ecological environment status index and the economic development index showed a fluctuating upward trend at the sub-basin level and the county level of the Dongting Lake Basin,and the level of coordinated eco-economic development was basically in a high state.The eco-economic coordination level of the five sub-basins as a whole showed a dynamic change from poor to excellent,and the level of coordinated development was significantly rising.However,the spatial differences among the development levels were significant,showing high development level in the east and north and low development level in the southwest.There are large spatial differences in the coordinated eco-economic development levels of the 148 county-level areas in Dongting Lake Basin,the overall eco-economic coordinated development level has improved from 1995 to2020,and the gap has shown a narrowing trend.The level of coordinated eco-economic development at the county level in the primary coupling stage has gradually changed into the coordinated development levels in the intermediate coupling stage in the good coupling stage.3.The Global Moran’s I values of ecological abundance index,vegetation cover index,water abundance index,and ecological environment status index at the county level of Dongting Lake Basin showed that there were a relatively significant spatial positive correlation,and only the spatial correlation of the land stress index was unstable.The spatial correlation between the county-level economic development status index and its constituent elements,as well as the eco-economic coordination degree,during the study period,produced positive spatial spillover effects.The hotspot area of the coupling and coordination degree of the county in the basin changed greatly with time,the high hotspot area was mainly distributed in the eastern region,the hotspot area was mainly distributed in the south,and most of the cold spot area was located in the west and north.From 1995 to 2020,the center of gravity of the coordinated eco-economic development level at the county scale was located in the range of 111.14°E-111.18°E and 27.50°N-27.53°N,which was in the northeast of the geometric center of gravity of the study range（111.22°E,27.70°N）.The center of gravity of the coordinated development level of the county moved to the southeastern study area in the year of 1995—2005,the center of gravity gradually moved to the northwestern study area in the year of 2005—2015,and from 2015 to 2020,the center of gravity gradually moved northern study area in the year of 2015—2020.4.The important obstacle factors affecting the level of coordinated eco-economic development in the Dongting Lake basin were the proportion of tertiary industry increase,the increase rate of fiscal revenue,the urban unemployment rate,the weighted post-water wetland,the weighted post-arable land,and the weighted unused land,which were the prominent obstacle factors faced by most areas.Important obstacles to the level of coordinated eco-economic development at the county level are economic density,investment in social fixed assets,weighted post-water wetlands,weighted post-arable land,fiscal revenue,water production modulus,and regional GDP,which are the prominent obstacle factors faced by most county-level areas.However,there are slight differences in the specific counties.5.The level of coordinated development of eco-economic at the county level in Dongting Lake basin produced a positive spatial spillover effect on neighboring areas from1995 to 2020.In addition,the factors influencing the coordinated development of eco-economic at the county lever of Dongting Lake Basin are mainly industrial,environmental,consumption and income factors.Specifically,the influence degree on the ecological environment is,in order of magnitude,the proportion of industrial value-added to GDP,advanced industry,PM2.5 concentration,CO2concentration,the proportion of total retail sales of consumer goods per capita to GDP per capita,and the proportion of disposable income per capita to GDP per capita.The influence degree on economic development is,in order of magnitude,CO2,PM2.5 concentration,disposable income per capita to GDP per capita CO2,PM2.5 concentration,disposable income per capita as a proportion of GDP per capita,total retail sales of consumer goods per capita as a proportion of GDP per capita,value-added of the industry as a proportion of GDP,and value-added of the tertiary sector as a proportion of value-added of the secondary sector.6.Four future development scenarios were set up to simulate and predict the development trend of the eco-economic coupling coordination in the Dongting Lake basin at multiple scales（basin,sub-basin and county）from 2025 to 2035.The results showed that it was on the rise for the degree of eco-economic coupling and coordination in the Dongting Lake basin at all scales.Furthermore,in the mode of scenario 4 considering strengthening economic development and ecological construction,there is a good development trend of eco-economic system in the Dongting Lake Basin,with a high degree of coupling between sub-systems and a steadily increasing degree of coordination.In addition,the scenario 4reached a high-quality coordinated development category（2030）relatively earlier than other development scenarios.Overall,the development trend of macroeconomics in the Dongting Lake Basin is good and has a trend of steady improvement.Moreover,the quality of the ecological environment is improving in parallel,which results in a high level of coordinated development with the development trend of macroeconomic. |
