| China faces the challenges of reaching its peak total CO2emissions before 2030and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060.Renewable energy development is the key to achieving the"30·60"dual carbon goals.In recent years,China’s renewable energy has developed rapidly.However,the structural imbalances in development scale and time sequence as well as non-synergistic in the system elements of“supply-transmission-demand”have led to problems such as idle installed capacity,waste of investment,and serious wind and solar curtailments.Therefore,under the guidance of China’s"30·60"dual carbon goal,how to achieve the synergy of installed capacity,power transmission capacity and power consumption capacity is the key to solving the efficient development and utilization of renewable energy.Under such circumstances,this study aims to solve the following key issues:（1）How to define the synergy of"supply-transmission-demand"?（2）How to evaluate the synergy of"supply-transmission-demand"during the development of renewable energy in China?（3）What are the main factors that affect the synergy development of"supply-transmission-demand"?（4）How to model the high-quality synergy of“supply-transmission-demand”of renewable electricity at the regional level?（5）How to obtain the optimal spatial layout and time sequence of the renewable power installed capacity and transmission lines?To address the above-mentioned questions,this study took"the concept definition of"supply-transmission-demand"synergy→the evaluation of synergy level→the identification of influence factors→decision optimization"as the research route.Specifically,this thesis focused on the following four aspects.First of all,this study defined the synergy of"supply-transmission-demand",and constructed an evaluation model for the synergy of the renewable power"supply-transmission-demand".The evaluation model was used to measure the synergy level of"supply-transmission-demand"in China from 2013 to 2019,and identify disadvantaged areas of synergy development;Secondly,this thesis proposed a model to analyze the influencing factors of"supply-transmission-demand"coordinated development.Empirical research is conducted using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to2019.The influence of internal and external factors on the coordinated development of"supply-transmission-demand"was analyzed.And through the semi-parameter estimation method and the supplementary variable method,the robustness test is carried out to evaluate the stability of the model;Thirdly,this thesis constructed a regional planning model for renewable power"supply-transmission-demand"synergy.The China Southern Power Grid region was taken as an example for optimization analysis and to verify the effectiveness of the model.The scheme of power installation and power transmission was explored to achieve high-quality synergy of"supply-transmission-demand".Finally,this study defined the basic principles and objectives of"supply-transmission-demand"coordinated and orderly optimization under the 30·60 dual-carbon goal and established a comprehensive model of"supply-transmission-demand"coordinated and orderly optimization for China’s renewable energy development.The Gurobi solver was used to solve the model.According to different economic development scenarios and policy scenarios,the optimal renewable energy installation sequence and layout,and transmission line layout and construction sequence were obtained.This thesis also conducted a sensitivity analysis on four key parameters.Through the above theoretical discussion and empirical analysis,this study found that:（1）the level of"supply-transmission-demand"coordinated development in Henan,Hubei,Hunan and Chongqing needs to be improved;（2）internal factors are the main influencing factor of"supply-transmission-demand"coordinated development,while external effects are supplemented.Among the internal factors,the coupling level of power supply and power transmission has the greatest positive impact.Economic development and energy prices have a significant positive impact on the coordinated development of"supply-transmission-demand",while policy intensity’s effect is not significant.（3）By the optimization model,the coordinated development level of"supply-transmission-demand"in the China Southern Power Grid region can be improved to high-quality at the end of the planning period;（4）Under the premise of"supply-transmission-demand"to achieve coordinated and orderly development,the carbon emission reduction potential in 2060 is as high as 6.87-9.86 billion tons of CO2;（5）The installed capacity and power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are more sensitive to the change of their levelized cost,but the total installed capacity and power generation are not sensitive to it;（6）Regardless of whether the model parameters are increased or decreased by 10%,the 800KV DC transmission technology with a rated capacity of 10GW is the preferred technology for transmission line construction.The contributions of this study are mainly reflected in the following three aspects:（1）This thesis defined the synergy of"supply-transmission-demand",and established an evaluation model to measure the renewable power"supply-transmission-demand"coordination degree,which provides an effective method for evaluating the coordinated development of China’s renewable power"supply-transmission-demand".This study enriched the application of synergistic theory in energy management and decision-making.The constructed model can identify areas of disadvantage for collaborative development.It can provide theoretical and technical support for alleviating the increasingly prominent contradiction of"supply-transmission-demand"in China.（2）This thesis proposed an analysis method of the internal and external influencing factors of"supply-transport-demand"coordinated development.It filled the gap in the research on the influencing factors of renewable energy development.Internal factors and external effects are taken as the starting point.This thesis quantitatively analyzed the role of internal and external factors in the coordinated development of"supply-transport-demand".It provided a new perspective for realizing the mutual progress among the three elements of power supply,power transmission and power demand,continuous and coordinated development,and supporting the deep decarbonization of the power system.（3）This thesis provided a new idea for the planning modelling of renewable energy development considering the relationship of"supply-transmission-demand",which makes up for the neglect of the existing research on the synergistic characteristics of the power"supply-transmission-demand"system.This study applied the model to China’s renewable energy development planning under different economic development and policy intensity scenarios.The research results can provide a scientific basis and decision-making plan for the policy formulation of China’s renewable energy industry and power industry,and also provided the reference for investors’technology selection. |
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