Modeling And Simulation Of Energy-Economy Coupled System With Individual-based Model

At present,policies to deal with climate change are widely implemented around the world,and the rapid penetration of renewable energy in the energy system makes the energy system centered on electricity undergoing tremendous changes.These changes mean that low-carbon technologies will be a major trend in the energy transition in the coming decades.In this context,multi-energy complementary utilization technology,distributed energy technology,electric vehicle technology,market-based transaction mechanism,information and communication technology,Internet of Things technology and The development of other related technologies has made the energy system centered on electricity to develop in a more complex and unpredictable direction,gradually forming a complex power energy system.The research objects involved in complex power energy systems are diverse,including social,physical,economic,policy,behavior and other research objects.From the system point of view,complex system concepts such as new power system,integrated energy system,energy economic environment system,cyber-physical social system,etc.have also been generated.Simulation methods can play an important role in the study of complex power energy systems.Due to the low experimental cost and high safety,by modifying the experimental variables and repeating the simulation experiment many times,it is very convenient to conduct sensitivity analysis and deeply understand the characteristics of complex systems.This approach can make the decision-making process more rational and less dependent on intuition and experience.In the long run,it will help the transformation and upgrading of energy system technology,and can also better help industries such as power and energy to cope with potential challenges.During the transformation of the complex power energy system,the changes are mainly reflected in the following aspects:(1)The system is more decentralized.The traditional vertical integration model is broken,the decision-making body is diversified,and the decision-making process is decentralized?(2)The system is more dynamic.Due to the increased interaction and mutual influence between different subjects within the system,the individual and the system are in a dynamic evolution process?(3)The diversity of individuals in the system increases.Individuals with large differences in characteristics coexist in the same complex system,there are various types,large time differences,and different degrees of concentration.In order to better adapt to the new complex power energy system form,the corresponding modeling and simulation methods should be able to reflect various changes in the energy system transformation process.The development of distributed modeling theory,artificial intelligence technology,multi-agent simulation technology,and information and communication technology make it possible to build distributed,multi-interaction,and localized simulations.Individual-based models originating from the field of ecology describe the dynamic evolution of the entire system,population,and individual by modeling individuals.It has become an important research method for complex adaptive systems.Due to the high similarity between the individual morphology in the complex power energy system and the individual morphology in the field of ecology,this method has the potential to be used in the modeling and simulation analysis of the complex power energy system.Therefore,based on this model,this paper builds a modeling and simulation method suitable for complex power energy systems,and conducts relevant research on knowledge modeling,platform design and selection of individual systems.The main research contents of the paper include:(1)Summarize and analyze various complex system concepts,research methods,individual models and simulation tools in the energy field.The similarities and differences of the existing system concepts are extracted,the commonality of these systems is abstracted,and the problems existing in the modeling and simulation research of complex power energy systems are summarized.(2)Considering the diversity of models and simulations in complex power energy systems,an individual-oriented standardized model is designed,and detailed and non-redundant individual internal elements and functional interfaces are defined.Among them,the formal standard model solves the problem of non-standard model and lack of generality.The reserved functional interfaces provide more possibilities for modeling the behavioral characteristics of individuals.(3)Based on ontology knowledge and fuzzy knowledge modeling method,construct an individual knowledge description method adapted to the individual-oriented model.Among them,based on the ontology modeling technology,the communication ontology modeling in the simulation field is realized,and the simulation ontology supporting interoperability is established,which solves the problem of interaction between individuals.Based on fuzzy knowledge modeling technology,the description of individual internal knowledge is realized,and the application scope of ontology in complex power energy system is expanded.(4)Based on the prospect theory model in the field of behavioral economics,by improving the utility function in the reinforcement learning algorithm,it reflects the risk attitude of individuals.The individual behavior under the action of the prospect theory model is studied,and the key factors affecting the behavior are analyzed.(5)Combined with the definition of individual models and simulation requirements,the simulation platform architecture and technology selection.Technology selection of a simulation platform involves all key elements of the entire simulation architecture.Among them,based on the multiagent system simulation technology and the individual-oriented model,the hybrid point-to-point architecture and the key technology selection of the distributed simulation system are designed,including supporting the automatic configuration of experimental economics experiments,fast visualization based on model view control and human-computer interaction interface adapted to multiple scenes.Finally,several important research issues in the simulation of complex power energy systems are discussed.