The Simulation Research Of Pedestrian Evacuation In Large-scale Venue

Due to the high density of people gathered inside the same stadium or gymnasium, which cause the low efficiency of evacuation and the lurking risks of stampede, pedestrian evacuation has already become the number one concern in organizing any activity in the large-scale stadiums and gymnasiums.The purpose of this thesis paper is to study, on the basis of a micro computer simulation model of human evacuation, the decision-making mechanism of human being in the process of evacuation by reproducing and explaining an evacuation scenario in reality. By doing so, the paper aims at serving as a reference to the designing and management of large-scale stadiums and gymnasiums.Based on the universal acknowledgement of human-being as the best"controller", this paper proposes to model the individual behavior of evacuation as a controlling process. Then the two major concepts in controlling can be introduced into the study of human evacuation, namely the concepts of feedback and optimization.The introduction of the feedback mechanism can effectively lower the requirements of accuracy in the modeling of the control system, which includes the modeling of the object being controlled and that of the external environment. This paper combines the simulation methodology of Agent modeling to accurately describe individual behaviors and the simulation methodology of Cellular Automata (CA) to roughly describe the external environment. Based on the combination, the paper constructs the model for human being, the principal of action with complicated adaptability, on the different stages of"feeling, decision-making and action"and constructs the model for the complex of large-scale stadiums and gymnasiums.Based on the difference of individual decision-making, this paper proposes five individual models of pedestrian evacuation. These models represent five categories of individual in the real life. It is fair to say these five groups of people almost represent all types of people in real life. In accordance with the five groups of people with five methods of evacuation, the paper constructs four evacuation models for the normal, crowded, mono-step and multi-step scenarios. To construct each and every model, the paper predicts the individual's potential action and the general evacuation movement out of common sense. Then it proposes the framework of modeling and the specific modeling method. In the individual model, the instant information he/she obtains at a certain moment during the evacuation includes the distance between every neighboring grid to the exit, the number and intensity of people and obstacles within his/her instant sight, which are all critical factors for the individual's decision-making process. In the model of normal evacuation, the individual seeks optimization of evacuation pathway on the basis of the afore-mentioned factors. In the model of crowded evacuation, the concepts of individual competitiveness, endurance capacity, endurance limit, crowdedness and other related concepts are added, based on which the sub-models for individual's tumbling, being hurt or killed are consequently constructed. To construct the model of mono-step pre-movement and multi-step pre-movement, the concept of pre-movement is introduced into the previous two models, in which the individual's adaptive adjustment to his/her evacuation strategy after making prejudgment of the consequence of pre-movement is also considered.Based on the different simulation models as previously mentioned, the paper constructs, using Java language, the simulation platform of PESS. The research analyzes the simulation result of the four different models at the four typical areas and also conducts mixed simulation for the mixed group of different types of people. The result shows that the modeling framework, principles and methods proposed in the paper are all feasible. The models have strong ability to describe, reproduce and explain the reality of evacuation.