| At present,under the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" policies,China is actively building a new energy Internet.It can be predicted that distributed generation and energy storage will be connected to the power network on a large scale.In the future,a new power system of "large grid+active distribution network+microgrid" will be gradually formed,and integrated with renewable energy to form a new energy system.Under the policy background of encouraging the development of distributed generation,how to make investment decisions and how to formulate trading strategies for distributed generation are the main issues of this paper.This paper first studies the important factors affecting the development of distributed generation in China,then constructs the investment decision-making model of distributed power generation and supporting power grid,and then studies the trading strategies of market participants under three typical trading modes.The main research contents of this paper include:(1)Study the development trend and important influencing factors of distributed generation.Based on the interpretive structure model,this paper studies the important factors affecting the development of distributed generation,and based on lcoe(leveled cost of energy),further calculates and studies one of the important factors-the cost of distributed generation per kilowatt hour.(2)The investment decision-making model of distributed generation and supporting power grid based on multi-agent game is constructed.With the rapid development of distributed generation,the problem of disorderly development and grid connection of distributed generation has emerged.In order to explore the ideas and models to solve this problem,this paper first constructs the income model of distributed generation and supporting power grid;Secondly,based on multi-agent game and power flow calculation analysis,a joint game investment decision model of distributed generation and supporting power grid is constructed.Finally,the iterative search method is used to solve the model.The investment decision-making model can provide new ideas for the investment decision-making of distributed generation and supporting power grid in the construction of new power system.(3)After the investment and development of distributed power supply,it is necessary to choose the appropriate transaction mode.The typical transaction mode of distributed power supply in China is divided into P2P(peer-to-peer)(peer-to-peer),redundant power network and producer and seller groups,and the transaction strategy of each subject in each mode is studied respectively.At present,P2P transaction mainly adopts contract management,which is not applicable to the characteristics of small volume and high frequency of distributed power transaction.There are many problems,such as the difficulty of transaction matching and the difficulty of network crossing fee reflecting the impact of transaction on the investment and operation cost of power grid.Based on this,this paper studies how to formulate the overpass fee mechanism to more accurately reflect the transmission and distribution cost of the power grid in P2P mode,how to match the transaction between distributed power sources and users,and how to formulate the transaction strategy.In this paper,we study the trading strategies of multiple consecutive two-way auction trading scenarios and multi-agent game scenarios respectively.The simulation results show that the P2P trading model and strategy designed in this paper can match multilateral bidding transactions safely,economically and efficiently.(4)Residual power grid connection refers to the residual power grid connection after the distributed power is consumed nearby in the microgrid.The transaction within the microgrid is also a P2P mode in essence.Firstly,based on the research of P2P trading mode and trading strategy,a matching mechanism to promote distributed generation trading in microgrid is designed,and the effectiveness of the mechanism is tested.Next,a volume price two-level game model of distributed generation trading strategy is constructed to study the bidding power and electricity price strategies of distributed generation trading entities in the residual power grid mode.First of all,build a distributed generation trading volume price two-level game model to analyze the interaction between trading entities.Then,analyze the economic operation income of each subject,build the game model of each subject’s trading strategy,and conduct simulation to test the effectiveness of the model.Finally,the matching mechanism is combined with the trading strategy to build a microgrid distributed generation trading simulation platform based on Alibaba cloud platform.The actual geographical wiring diagram of a village and the 24-hour real-time power load are jointly simulated,and the results verify the effectiveness of the model.(5)This paper studies the trading strategies of each subject in the distributed generation producer and marketer group model,and sets up a comparative analysis of different scenarios.An internal profit optimization distribution mechanism based on improved Shapley method is proposed to better reflect the actual contributions of members within the producer and marketer group and enhance the enthusiasm of distributed generation storage to participate in the producer and marketer group.This paper studies the bidding strategy of producers and marketers participating in the power market,and establishes the trading strategy model of producers and marketers combined with the strategic competition behavior.By solving the model,the optimal strategy of trading electricity price and quantity is obtained.The research results show that:(1)under the "double carbon" policy,the development of clean energy and renewable energy will accelerate,and the installed capacity of distributed generation will increase rapidly.With the gradual elimination of subsidy policies and the decline of kWh cost,the development of distributed generation will gradually be market-oriented,and there will be a game between multiple players in the market.(2)Based on the established investment decision-making model of distributed generation and supporting power grid,it is found that in the "game+joint decision" scenario of distributed generation and supporting power grid,the total income of each subject is greater than the income aiming at maximizing its own income,which verifies the effectiveness of the model.The investment plan formulated jointly by distributed power generation and supporting power grid can not only comprehensively consider the interests of all market participants,but also effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of its coupling nodes and effectively ensure the vitality of the market.Therefore,before investing in distributed power generation,it is recommended that investors first understand the local power grid access and load conditions,and then make investment decisions.(3)Classified research on distributed generation according to its typical transaction mode can be more accurate,in-depth and targeted.The premise for the large-scale implementation of P2P transaction mode is that there needs to be a suitable "network fee" mechanism.The current "network fee"mechanism is difficult to reflect the actual investment and operation and maintenance costs of the power grid.A more reasonable "network fee"calculation mechanism needs to be established to fully consider the impact of transactions on the construction,operation and maintenance of the power grid and load flow.Due to the small capacity of distributed power,the current contract management mode has low transaction efficiency and is difficult to match P2P transactions.It is suggested to establish a unified trading platform to meet the needs of P2P multilateral transactions.The distributed power-user trading strategy based on multi-agent game can realize that each agent seeks to maximize its own income while satisfying the constraints of power grid operation.(4)The frequent grid connection of distributed power generation brings great challenges to the grid inverter and other equipment as well as the dispatching of distribution network.For small capacity distributed power generation(generally less than 3MW),it is recommended to consume nearby first and then connect the remaining power to the grid.According to the simulation results of the example in this paper,at present,the household distributed power supply in China can not fully meet the demand of the nearby load,and the power grid is required to ensure the power supply.(5)After the integration of large capacity(generally 3MW and above)and small capacity distributed generation that is not suitable for nearby consumption,it can compete with traditional energy in the power market.Due to the deviation between the output and bidding of distributed power generation,we should encourage complementary distributed power generation and energy storage to form a group of producers and marketers,and optimize the internal profit distribution mechanism to more accurately reflect the actual contributions of various entities,so as to promote the enthusiasm of energy storage to participate in the group of producers and marketers.Finally,based on the above research,the research results and conclusions of this paper are obtained.This paper puts forward a more systematic development idea of distributed generation,guides the investment and trading of distributed generation,and formulates the optimal trading strategy.The research results can assist energy regulators,distributed generation investment and trading entities to formulate relevant strategies,and also provide a systematic solution for the formulation of distributed generation investment and trading strategies in the process of building a multi-level unified power market in China. |
