Research On Investment Risk Management Of China Expressway Project

Expressway project is usually constructed in extremely complex natural and humanistic environments,it has the characteristics of enormous investment,long construction period,high construction technology,quality,and safety requirements.Factors such as capital,technology,personnel,external environment,and geological disasters will have a certain impact on the entire project management.At the same time,the whole process management of expressway project is a continuous and dynamic management practice process.Therefore,it puts forward very high requirements for the investment risk management of expressway projects that directly affects the benefits and even the development of enterprises.At present,scholars at home and abroad have carried out relevant research on the investment risk management of expressway projects,and the certain research results were achieved.However,with the increasingly complex construction of expressway projects,the traditional investment risk management methods of expressway projects are difficult to satisfy the requirements of the new situation.According to the mentioned above,in this thesis the Chinese expressway project is studied,a complete investment risk management system,which is suitable for China’s expressway risk management,is establish through analyzing existed research.The risk management system obtained in here can solve the drawback of traditional method of project risk management.The research results will improve the investment risk control ability of China’s expressway projects,furtherly,and promote the development of project investment risk management system in a more scientific direction.The main work of the thesis as follows:(1)In order to obtain the key risks of China’s expressway projects under the Build-Operate-Transfer + Engineering-Procurement-Construction(BOT+EPC)model,all the risk factors about China’s expressway projects under the BOT+EPC model were preliminarily collected through referring existed literature.The influence of all risk factors is assessed by expert questionnaire,and the relative importance index of each risk factor is calculated based on stepwise weighted evaluation ratio analysis(SWARA).Finally,the potential major risk factors of expressway project under the BOT+EPC model are identified,which can provide a basis for the research in subsequent chapters.(2)To better realize the overall risk assessment of expressway projects under the BOT+EPC mode,the interdependence of risk factors including the different inter-stage and intra-stage risks is firstly analyzed.And then,the risk net of expressway project under the BOT+EPC model is established.According to this,a Bayesian network-based expressway risk assessment model is further proposed considering the dual interdependence of risks,and the specific method of risk assessment is given.By collecting the relevant data of 45 expressway investment projects,a risk probability table is established,and the improved Bayesian network risk assessment method is applied in actual engineering cases by Agena Risk software.The results show that the assessment method established in this paper can better predict the risk of the actual expressway investment project,and provide support for further risk response and monitoring of expressway projects.(3)In order to obtain the ideal risk-handling strategy,this study focuses on the project risk-handling strategy under the multi-objective.Firstly,by considering the correlation between risks,with the goal of minimizing cost loss,minimizing construction schedule delay,minimizing project quality degradation,and maximizing risk response effect,a two-stage multi-objective risk response considering risk interdependence is proposed.Finally,the MATLAB software and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms(NSGA)are used to analyze and calculate the engineering example,in order to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the two-stage multi-objective risk response optimization method.Combined with the risk assessment results of the actual project case,the scientific risk-handling strategy was developed by the decision maker.Finally,the project achieved a profit in the subsequent operation and maintenance stage.(4)To reduce the loss caused by the risk through the risk monitoring technology,in here,the natural disaster risk is taken as the analysis object,the risk monitoring research is carried out for the bridge part of the expressway in the operation and maintenance stage.Based on the theory of resilience,the structural functionality is selected as the key early warning indicator,and the target threshold is obtained through the analysis of the recovery function and the formulation of the corresponding recovery plan.Based on this,a recovery-based expressway project risk monitoring mechanism is constructed.The research results play a positive role in realizing pre-control against natural disaster risks and promoting the cross-integration of risk management and recoverability.The results obtained in this thesis will play a positive role in further promoting the investment risk management of China’s expressway projects,and provide some valuable theoretical basis and technical support for the government and investors.