Study On The Characteristics And Mechanism Of Heterogeneous Travel Behavior Of Air-rail Intermodal Passengers With Ticketing Data

Both the“outline for the construction of a transportation power”and the“outline for the planning of the national comprehensive three-dimensional transport network”clearly point out that China needs to vigorously develop the construction of the inter regional comprehensive inter transport system.The key is to promote the overall planning and integrated transport organization among the multi-mode transport,and focus on the upgrading of the passenger ticket service system,the sharing of the inter regional operation information,the simplification of the security inspection process,and the optimization of the transfer and connection.The"14^th five year plan"for the development of modern comprehensive traffic system pointed out that:as one of the most typical intercity combined transportation modes,air-rail integrated transport needs the coordinated operation and management of multiple departments such as high-speed rail,aviation,stations and airport hubs.At present,the air-rail integrated service is still in the embryonic stage of development,there are some problems,such as the fragmentation of the information ticketing system,the difficulty of ticket purchase and query,the low efficiency of transfer and connection,the low quality of integrated service,the poor travel experience of passengers,and the low market share of intercity transportation.The existing study is insufficient to explore the heterogeneity mechanism of service quality evaluation,transfer behavior and advance ticket purchase behavior of air-rail passengers in view of the insufficient consideration of air-rail integrated ticket characteristics and the differences of socio-economic attributes and travel characteristics of air-rail passengers.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the characteristics of air-rail integrated ticketing,combine the travel behavior characteristics of air-rail intermodal passengers,tap the travel differentiation demands of air-rail intermodal passengers,analyze the heterogeneity mechanism of complex travel behavior of multi category air-rail intermodal passengers,and provide a solid theoretical basis for promoting the"fine"management of air-rail integrated ticketing market,providing diversified and personalized air-rail integrated ticketing services,and improving the operational benefits of air-rail integrated service.This paper combines the micro travel perception questionnaire data of air-rail intermodal passengers and online ticket booking transaction data of air-rail intermodal passengers,as well as the macro intercity traffic operation and transfer connection data between stations and airports,so as to accurately capture the subjective psychological perception,objective ticket purchase and travel characteristics and intercity traffic operation characteristics of air-rail intermodal passengers.This paper focuses on the whole process travel behavior characteristics of air-rail intermodal passengers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration region,focusing on the market segmentation of air-rail intermodal passengers,the diagnosis of bottleneck factors of perceived service quality of multi-group passenger,and the analysis of transfer behavior characteristics of multi-group intermodal passengers,and the time distribution and mechanism of passengers purchasing tickets in advance.In view of the whole process travel behavior of intermodal passengers’ticket purchase query before travel,airport station access and pick-up,aviation section travel,transfer and high-speed rail section travel,the multi-dimensional evaluation model of air-rail intermodal travel service quality,passenger transfer travel behavior model and passenger advance ticket purchase time decision model are constructed respectively,and the key factors and endogenous mechanism restricting passengers’travel behavior in different stages are quantitatively analyzed.The main research contents of this paper include the following aspects:（1）In view of the problems such as many links of air-rail intermodal travel,difficulty in obtaining micro travel data of passengers and insufficient application of integrated ticket data,comprehensive application of questionnaire design,ticket big data extraction,python web crawler,data cleaning,data fusion and other technologies,integrated and built a multi-source heterogeneous database including the travel perception data of air rail intermodal passengers in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,online ticket booking transaction data of intermodal passengers,operation data of civil aviation and high-speed railway,and transfer connection data between airport stations.At the same time,through basic statistical analysis techniques such as histogram,radar chart and histogram,this paper visually describes the distribution of basic socio-economic characteristics,space-time travel characteristics,travel perception characteristics,transfer behavior characteristics and advance ticket purchase time distribution of air rail connecting passengers,which provides data support for the modeling of behavioral heterogeneity of air rail intermodal passengers in the later stage.At the same time,the integration of air-rail ticket data effectively overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional questionnaire,such as small sample size,subjective data and high survey cost,and effectively assists the modeling and mechanism analysis of air-rail intermodal passenger travel behavior.（2）In order to tap the diversified and personalized travel needs of air-rail intermodal passengers and capture the market characteristics of air-rail intermodal passengers,through correlation analysis,feature selection and potential category clustering model,this paper constructs the market segmentation model of air-rail intermodal passengers.Based on the questionnaire data of air-rail intermodal passengers and online ticket booking transaction data of intermodal passengers,the socio-economic attributes and travel characteristics of air-rail intermodal passengers are used,and the typical characteristics of passengers in various market segments are extracted by group statistical analysis and one-way ANOVA,so as to realize the labeling of passengers in different market segments.The segmentation of air-rail intermodal passengers market represents the differences of passengers’socio-economic attributes and travel characteristics in groups,fully excavates the travel differentiation demands of air-rail intermodal passengers,and provides a classification basis for the subsequent research on the heterogeneity of air-rail intermodal passengers.At the same time,the latent class clustering model has significant advantages in the field of market segmentation,such as high calculation efficiency,compatibility with multiple variable types,clustering fitting parameter evaluation,and so on.And the latent class clustering model can accurately and efficiently identify the travel characteristics of passengers in different market segments.（3）Aiming at the problems of diversified travel demands,low service experience and low travel satisfaction and loyalty of air-rail intermodal passengers,integrating the market segmentation model of air-rail intermodal passengers,multi group partial least squares structural equation model and importance satisfaction quadrant analysis model,this paper constructs the heterogeneity model of travel service quality evaluation of multi classification air-rail intermodal passengers.Firstly,a multi-dimensional evaluation model of air rail passenger service quality is constructed,which includes ticketing,connectivity,reliability,accessibility,comfort,information service,passenger satisfaction,loyalty and complaint;Then,with the help of multi group partial least squares structural equation model,the heterogeneity between the latent variable paths of travel perception behavior intention of air rail passengers in different market segments is explored;Finally,through the importance satisfaction quadrant analysis,the key factors affecting the perception of travel service quality of all kinds of air-rail intermodal passengers are identified.The multi group partial least squares structural equation model has obvious advantages in improving the goodness of simulation,mining the differences in service quality evaluation of multi group intermodal passengers,and formulating refined air-rail integrated service improvement strategies（4）In view of the disadvantages of complicated transfer process,long time consumption and poor experience of air rail intermodal passengers,combined with the ticket market segmentation model,generalized ordered logit model and marginal effect analysis technology,a multi classification heterogeneity model of air-rail intermodal passengers transfer behavior is constructed.Firstly,according to the segmentation results of air rail combined ticket market,the ticket data subsets of three different segments are obtained.Then,using the generalized ordered logit regression model,this paper discriminates the key factors affecting the transfer behavior of multi group air-rail intermodal passengers from four dimensions:Passenger socio-economic attribute,ticket travel attribute,high-speed rail and civil aviation operation attribute,airport station transfer connection attribute and so on.At the same time,through the marginal effect analysis technology,the heterogeneity mechanism of ticket attributes such as socio-economic attributes,ticket prices,travel distance and travel time on the transfer behavior of multi group air-rail intermodal passengers is excavated.In addition,the generalized ordered logit model of multi group passengers has good adaptability in overcoming the parallel line hypothesis,improving the goodness of fit of the model,analyzing the differences of multi group passengers’transfer behavior,and formulating diversified transfer service improvement strategies.（5）Aiming at the problems such as complicated ticket purchase process,unclear ticket purchase demand and insufficient ticket order information mining,combined with data mining,Bayesian network structure learning,parameter learning,reasoning analysis and sensitivity analysis technology,this paper constructs a heterogeneity analysis model of advance ticket purchase behavior of air-rail intermodal passengers under different travel distances.First,a Bayesian network model is constructed,which takes the socio-economic attributes and travel characteristic attributes of air-rail intermodal passengers as input variables and the advance ticket purchase time as target variables,and the model is learned by using the intermodal passenger data of four different distance routes.Then,the results of reasoning analysis reveal the complex interaction between the socio-economic attributes of air-rail intermodal passengers and the ticketing attributes and advance ticket purchase behavior.In addition,multi group sensitivity analysis reveals the heterogeneous mechanism of fare,transfer time,age and other factors on advance ticket purchase behavior in different travel distance route models.At the same time,the Bayesian network model of multi group passengers’advanced ticket purchase behavior combines the advantages of expert experience,data mining and interpretability,effectively makes up for the shortcomings of total sample modeling homogeneity,black box and excessive dependence on data volume,and fully analyzes the mechanism of heterogeneous advanced ticket purchase behavior of intermodal passengers.Based on the micro perception of intermodal passengers and online ticket booking data,combined with the open source data of air-rail intermodal operation data and station transfer-related data,this study hopes to carry out the coordinated operation construction of intercity multi-mode transportation and the optimization and improvement of intermodal services for multi-mode operation managers through the systematic analysis of the whole travel process behavior of air-rail intermodal passengers,the heterogeneity of passenger demand,and the decision-making of transfer behavior and advance ticket purchase time.Providing theoretical basis for the integrated planning and construction of hub stations and stations,as well as the revenue management of integrated ticket,so as to realize the efficient,healthy and sustainable development of air-rail integrated transportation market as soon as possible.