Research On The Evaluation And Prediction Of Financial Stability In Russia

Although the tremendous impact of the international financial crisis on Russian economy has passed,the recession of the real economy is still continuing.For the Russian government,a series of major events such as the Ukraine crisis and the recent impact of the new crown epidemic have not stopped their economic impact,and the large-scale anti-recession plan is still being implemented.In the process of maintaining normal economic growth,we should not only try to avoid the recurrence of financial crisis,but also maintain the stability of the existing financial system.Under the current situation,financial stability is the basic guarantee for Russia’s economic recovery.Many financial crises in Russia have shown that economic recovery based on financial stability is meaningful.Therefore,financial stability is a priority for the Russian government and needs to be attached great importance to.In view of this,this paper takes Russian financial stability as the research theme.Firstly,it combs and summarizes the relevant theories and research literature of Russian financial stability under the background of financial globalization,trying to summarize the development process and unique features of Russian financial stability.Secondly,this paper evaluates the situation of Russian financial stability in order to find out the major achievements and possible shortcomings of Russian financial stability and lay a solid foundation for the following research.Thirdly,this paper forecasts the situation of Russian financial stability in order to make a possible preliminary judgment on Russian financial stability in the future.Finally,according to the combing and summary of this paper,and after a more comprehensive understanding of Russian financial stability,in view of the possible defects and shortcomings of Russia in maintaining its financial stability,this paper puts forward possible improvement measures and methods,and more important,discover Russia’s successful experience in dealing with the financial crisis and economic recession,in order to provide a useful reference for China’s current financial reform and economic opening.In this paper,the evaluation of Russia’s financial stability is mainly based on the macroeconomic operation,international financial environment,financial market operation and the stability of financial institutions.Firstly,factor analysis is used to reduce the dimensions of each index,and then the evaluation index of financial stability is constructed and scored.The value is used to judge the financial stability of Russia.From the evaluation results,Russia’s financial stability has experienced three relatively unstable stages,namely,1997-1999,2008-2010 and 2015-2016,corresponding to the time of three Russian financial crisis.This paper predicts the prospect of Russian financial stability through the ARMA model.The results show that Russian financial stability is generally at a high level in the next five years,but there are also great risks,such as heavy dependence on foreign capital,single economic structure,oil and natural gas and other energy resources play a decisive role in its industry and is vulnerable to external market shocks.According to the forecast results of Russian financial stability,in the next few years,Russia’s financial stability will be stable and at a safe level,but there are still many uncertainties,such as the sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Russia in the economic and financial fields,the trend of international crude oil prices and so on.In the long run,Russia needs to take more and more effective measures in industrial restructuring and modernization strategy.Only when the degree of external dependence of the economy and industrial structure is reduced to a normal level,can Russia’s financial stability be protected from excessive external market shocks and its economic growth rate be adjusted and go to a positive track.At the same time,through the comparative analysis of the similarities and differences in the economic and financial levels between Russia and China,we find that there are many similarities in the economic and financial fields between the two countries.For example,the banking system occupies the leading position in the financial system,and the economic system has been transformed into the market economy system through the planned economy system.The biggest difference between the two countries lies in the process of financial liberalization and financial reform in the early days of reform.Finally,by summing up the experience of the changes and development of Russian financial stability,the following enlightenments are given for China’s current financial reform and opening up: first,gradual reform and steady progress;second,strengthening the monitoring of international capital flows;third,strengthening supervision and preventing systemic financial risks.