Effect Mechanism And Empirical Research Of SOE Dividend On Total Factor Productivity

The dividend policy of SOEs is an important measure to standardize the distribution relationship between the state and enterprises.It has important practical significance for establishing the state-owned capital operation budget system and promoting the reform of SOEs.It is a major project related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood.In 2007,China has created a classified model for SOEs to turn over after-tax profits,ending the phenomenon of internal circulation in the income system of SOEs,but the amount handed over is only 5%-10% of SOEs’ profits.Since then,the government has successively promulgated policies to try to continuously adjust and increase the dividend ratio of SOEs.However,the actual proportion of profits handed over by SOEs to the state is still very low,and the phenomenon of "high profits,low dividends" is still widespread in SOEs.The overall progress of the reform of the dividend system of SOEs is slow,and the operation shows problems such as too small scale,too low proportion,too slow growth,lack of continuity and stability and so on.With the improving of the profitability of SOEs,internal earnings retained increasingly abundant.Compared with the high external financing cost,the use cost of internal free funds is lower.At the same time,there is a lack of strict audit and supervision and effective incentive mechanism for the management of SOEs.Therefore,when the internal governance mechanism of SOEs and the market mechanism and legal system are not perfect,the executives of SOEs use a large number of internal retained profits for blind scale expansion,over investment and on-the-job consumption.The high principal-agent cost leads to the huge loss of efficiency of SOEs,which has become one of the important problems to be solved by SOEs at this stage.At present,the important goal of deepening the reform of SOEs in China is to become stronger and better,become a big country with capital,and promote its rational flow and optimal allocation.It can be seen that the reform of SOEs has entered the era of "capital management" from "enterprise management".In view of the great significance of dividends of SOEs,its research value is self-evident.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward that the key to realizing China’s high-quality economic development is to improve TFP.As an important part of China’s economic development,improving TFP will not only help SOEs enhance their core competitiveness,but also promote the quality and efficiency of the national economy and realize the endogenous growth model.Then,as one of the important means of state-owned assets management,how to play a role in the reform of SOEs to affect the operation efficiency of state-owned assets and the production efficiency of SOEs is of particular concern.Taking the opportunity of improving TFP proposed in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,this paper studies the impact of dividends of SOEs on TFP and provides policy suggestions for improving the dividend mechanism of SOEs optimizing the capital allocation structure and utilization efficiency of SOEs,promoting the deepening reform of SOEs and promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.There is no doubt that it is timely and important.Based on the policy background and development process of SOEs dividend,and on the basis of domestic and foreign research reviews,this article takes the principalagent theory as the logical starting point,dividend theory as the support,free cash flow theory as the support,capital market imperfection theory,financing constraint theory,trade-off theory as the supplement,combined with the influencing factors of the TFP of SOEs,puts forward the corresponding hypothesis and verifies it.First of all,this paper theoretically explores the internal logic of the impact of SOE dividend on TFP,clarifies the relationship between the two,and analyze theoretically whether SOE dividends affect TFP through the transmission chain of enterprise investment and enterprise innovation.Specifically,the enterprise investment is divided into investment efficiency and investment risk,and the enterprise innovation is divided into innovation input,innovation output and innovation risk.The influence mechanism of dividends on TFP of SOEs is analyzed from multi-dimensional and multi-perspective,and the corresponding research hypothesis is proposed to construct the theoretical analysis framework of this paper.Secondly,through model construction and empirical analysis,the inverted U-shaped relationship between SOE dividends and TFP is empirically tested.Endogenous control and a series of robustness tests are carried out on the model,and the optimal level of SOE dividends that maximizes TFP is calculated,and make clear whether there is room to further improve the SOE dividend ratio under the state capital operation budget system currently implemented in China.On this basis,based on the administrative level,the degree of competition and the technical characteristics of the industry,the different regions of SOEs,studies are conducted to explore the difference of the influence degree of SOE dividend on TFP under the condition of firm heterogeneity.Later,on the premise of large sample data,by using inverted U-shaped curve intermediary effect model,this paper empirically analyzes the mediating role of enterprise investment(investment efficiency and investment risk)and enterprise innovation(innovation input,innovation output and innovation risk)on the relationship between SOE dividend and TFP.The research hypothesis is tested as far as possible,and the influence mechanism and specific transmission path of SOE dividend on TFP are revealed and verified with data.Based on the above logic,this paper draws the following conclusions:Firstly,the relationship between SOE dividends and TFP is not a simple linear relationship,but an inverted U-shaped relationship.The positive promoting effect of dividends on TFP is not endless,research suggests that theoretically there is a critical value for the proportion of SOEs’ dividends,at which SOEs’ TFP can be maximized,neither too low nor too high dividend level can make SOEs obtain the optimal TFP.Before the critical value,the SOEs’ TFP will increase with the rise of the dividend ratio,and there is a positive correlation in the same direction.After the critical value,increasing the dividend ratio of SOEs will have a negative effect on the TFP,and the relevant conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Secondly,this paper calculates that the dividend level that makes the TFP reach the optimal value is 45.85%.Considering the actual situation of profits paid by SOEs at the present stage,the current proportion of dividends paid by SOEs is generally low,which is still far from the inflection point calculated in this paper.At present,it is in the left(ascending)stage of the inverted U structure as a whole.This indicates that the proportion of SOEs dividend still has a certain room for improvement,and this conclusion provides theoretical basis and data support for clarifying the policy orientation of further increasing the dividend ratio of SOEs.Thirdly,the "compulsory" and "unified" dividend policy must not be a profit distribution policy that maximizes efficiency for each enterprise.That is to say,the economic consequences of SOE dividends differ among different types of enterprises.Based on the analysis of the administrative level of SOEs,the degree of competition and technical characteristics of the industry to which SOEs belong,and the heterogeneity of the region where SOEs are located,this paper finds that under the same other conditions,the optimal dividend ratio of local SOEs is higher than that of central SOEs;the optimal dividend ratio of the industry with high concentration and strong monopoly is higher than that of the general competitive industry with low concentration;the optimal dividend ratio of traditional non-high-tech industries in the middle and late stage of development is higher than that of high-tech new strategic industries in the early stage of development;the optimal dividend ratio of SOEs in the less developed western regions is higher than that of SOEs in the eastern and central regions with relatively high economic development level.Fourthly,the effect of SOE dividend on TFP requires an "intermediate bridge".The results of this paper show that the SOE dividend has an impact on TFP through affecting investment and innovation.Through the "SOEs dividend-enterprise investment-TFP" path analysis and argumentation,this paper argues that the investment efficiency and investment risk between the SOEs dividends and TFP plays an important role in the mediation conduction.A moderate SOE dividend ratio can improve the investment efficiency and reduce investment risks,which is conducive to the promotion of TFP;when the optimal SOE dividend ratio is exceeded,it will have a negative impact on TFP,making most SOEs unable to improve investment efficiency and reduce investment risks.Through the analysis and demonstration of the path of "SOEs dividend-enterprise innovation-TFP",this article believes that innovation input,innovation output and innovation risk have a significant mediating effect in the nonlinear relationship between SOE dividends and TFP.A moderate proportion of SOE dividends can promote SOEs to increase innovation input and innovation output,while effectively reducing the risk of innovation failure,thereby optimizing TFP.The excessively high proportion of SOE dividends will prevent most SOEs from increasing innovation input and innovation output.At the same time,it increases the risk of innovation failure,which in turn has an inhibitory effect on TFP.The research conclusions of this paper have certain policy implications for improving the state-owned capital management budget system,promoting the deepening of the reform of SOEs,improving the efficiency of state-owned capital allocation,promoting technological progress and improving the efficiency of SOEs.It can provide decision-making support for enhancing the vitality of the development of SOEs and their high-quality development.