| In recent years,in order to effectively respond to external shocks and cooperate with internal supply-side reforms,the central government has introduced a number of macrocontrol policies,using new and old momentum as the driving force to continue to promote the optimization of economic structure.Although the national economy has gradually returned to a stable development model,The polarization of the local economy has become more serious.The scale of transfer payments from the central government to local governments has maintained a double-digit growth rate in recent years.The budget for 2020 is 8391.5 billion yuan,an increase of 12.8%,accounting for 70.25% of the total central fiscal expenditure,plus a special 605 billion yuan.Transfer payments have pushed the total amount and proportion of transfer payments to unprecedented highs.In addition,the central and western regions continue to rely on transfer payments under the pressure of government debt,and calls for increasing subsidies have even spread to some developed regions.The outbreak of the new crown epidemic since the beginning of 2020 has increased the financial risks of local governments.In this regard,the central government’s 2020 government work report did not set specific economic growth targets."Quality development" is the way to achieve economic growth,gradually changing the development model of local governments in pursuit of growth rate,and continuing to maintain it as the normal state of policy implementation.The several Politburo meetings held since 2020 have also set the tone for China’s macroeconomic policy after the epidemic: continue to increase macroeconomic control and properly handle the "deleveraging and stable growth,tax reduction and fee reduction,and improvement of people’s livelihood".Parallel relationship,to minimize the internal economic transformation and the risk of rising risks caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic.The implementation of the “VAT reform” in 2016 reduced the main tax types of local governments.The full implementation of “tax reduction and fee reduction” also made the imperfect central government tax revenue sharing system even more fragile.And the degree of dependence on transfer payments is also increasing day by day.Relevant system reforms in response to financial imbalances are concentrated in the form of "digging wells when thirst." The reconstruction of local financial resources lacks a clear plan,the sharing mechanism of financial power and power between central and local governments is also unstable,and the unpredictability of local finances is also associated with it.Keep increasing.In the face of the deviation of tax sources and taxes after the tax system reform,the reform of the fiscal relationship between the central and local governments must first be implemented in the relatively balanced distribution of local financial resources.How to build and improve local areas that include indicators such as population,consumption,and basic public service needs The financial evaluation system,and using it to solve the predicament of local financial imbalance,is the highlight of the new round of fiscal and taxation system reform.In this context,this article attempts to explain the operating mechanism of the existing transfer payment system by studying the pattern of government financial allocation among local governments and the causal relationship with the financial imbalance index.Compared with the previous literature,this article mainly does the following work:First,starting from theory,combining the transfer payment and local financial imbalances and other related research results into a framework,integrating the relationship between the government and the market into the understanding of the transfer payment system and the equilibrium state of financial distribution,through the transfer A literature review of the development stage,constituent elements,and mechanism of the payment system explores how the distribution of fiscal transfer payments among governments affects fiscal imbalances.Second,this article starts with my country’s fiscal budget structure,comprehensively considers the general public budget,social insurance fund budget,government fund budget,and state-owned capital operating budget,starting from the central government’s fiscal revenue distribution stage,and analyzes it in detail.The fiscal deficits between the central and local governments are analyzed,and the provinces are divided into net financial outflow areas and net financial inflow areas,and then start with descriptive statistics to analyze the effect of transfer payments in balancing financial differences between governments,and finally through the difference in fiscal self-sufficiency rates Measure the caliber to judge the overall distribution of national financial resources.Third,this paper builds an empirical model of panel regression,and conducts a systematic and rigorous analysis of the impact of the three major transfer payments on the provincial financial balance,using quantile regression,system GMM regression,and instrumental variables to verify the benchmark.After the robustness of the regression,the ductility analysis was carried out through different moderating variables,quasi-natural experiments,and mediating effect models.Fourth,creatively add transfer payment volatility to the theoretical framework of transfer payment equalization effects,analyze the root causes of transfer payment volatility from the perspective of fiscal practice and game theory,and fill the gaps in this part of the academic research;Based on the results of theoretical derivation,a standardized empirical model was constructed,which examined the magnitude and direction of the impact of transfer payment volatility on the horizontal fiscal imbalance index,and provided empirical evidence of the impact of transfer payment volatility on horizontal fiscal imbalances.Optimize and improve another way.In terms of methodology,this article adopts a combination of theory and empirical research methods,and uses the latest research methods in the academic world to add China’s fiscal practice for a long period of time to a relatively robust analysis model for testing,including: 1)Taking normative analysis as The starting point is to use inductive and deductive methods to conduct a comprehensive review and commentary on the related literature of finance,decentralization theory,regional economics,and public products,and find the gaps in the existing research.On this basis,the research content and research of this article are proposed.Innovation points;2)Based on economics and finance disciplines,and creatively adding knowledge of game theory,it comprehensively analyzes the internal mechanism relationship between transfer payment and financial balance from the theoretical level,and lays a theory for relevant empirical analysis Base;3)Based on descriptive statistics,the central and local revenue sharing and fiscal self-sufficiency status and the effect of transfer payments in balancing the financial differences between governments have been analyzed in detail,and different financial measurement calibers have been used to investigate local governments.The imbalance characteristics of financial resources under different statistical calibers;4)In terms of empirical analysis,using panel regression,quantile regression,system GMM regression,instrumental variable method,moderating effect model,intermediary effect model and other econometric models and statistical methods,the general transfer payment,special transfer payment and tax return are examined.The overall impact,mechanism and economic consequences of the provincial fiscal imbalance.Taking the interdisciplinary research as the starting point,this paper uses the latest empirical research methods to explore the relationship between my country’s transfer payment system and the provincial fiscal balance,provides a reference for future fiscal system reforms,and evaluates and improves the current local fiscal resources.The path is provided.Starting from the empirical results,this article believes that although the current transfer payment system has certain problems and drawbacks,for the future fiscal system reform,it is more important than openness and transparency in decision-making procedures to clarify the logic between the various drawbacks.Relations,avoiding solving one contradiction at the same time may give birth to another contradiction.Judging from my country’s development experience,economic transformation and government transformation are closely related.The two are not simply a one-way relationship.The reform of the transfer payment system must also closely follow the layout of national economic development.Simple decentralization or centralization of financial resources Not necessarily the best solution.The financial resources in different regions of our country are quite different,and the problems faced in promoting the balanced distribution of financial resources are not the same.We should adhere to the principle of "problem-oriented" and promote the reform of the transfer payment system to make the reform of the fiscal system more targeted and operable.Therefore,this article is not only the result of the combination of interdisciplinary research and empirical and theoretical models,but also an important basis for promoting the construction of a high-standard fiscal system from the promotion of the quality of economic development. |
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