| With the rapid development of urbanization and urban economy,some cities appear “empty cities,” “ghost cities” and other shrinkage phenomenon,which are contrary to the growth and prosperity of traditional urbanization.Resolving the problems of population loss,economic recession and slow social development caused by urban shrinkage has become an significant issue to promote urbanization and achieve sustainable urban development.The Yellow River Basin is a key area for China’s economic and social development.In 2009,General Secretary Xi Jinping hosted a symposium on ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin in Henan province,which promoted the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin as a national strategy.In the Yellow River Basin,the number of resource-based cities accounts for about 47% of the total number of cities,and most resource-based cities are located in the middle and lower river basins.Therefore,scientifically evaluating the shrinkage level of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,deeply exploring the spatial effects and influencing factors of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,and actively seeking governance strategies for urban shrinkage not only have important theoretical influence in deepening the research on the internal mechanism of urban shrinkage,but also help urban managers to clarify the problems existing in urban shrinkage.This dissertation can provide a reference for formulating practical urban shrinkage governance policies,and has important practical impact on promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The specific research contents and main conclusions are as follows.1.Shrinkage measurement analysis of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.From the perspective of multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation,combined with the characteristics and laws of the development of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,14 indicators are selected from three dimensions: population structure,economic structure and social structure to construct an evaluation index system of urban shrinkage,so as to calculate the urban shrinkage degree of 26 resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.The results are as follows.(1)The shrinkage degree of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin generally tends to decline on the whole,with occasional increases in the middle.(2)Due to the different economic basis and market conditions,the shrinking state of cities is different.The city with the highest average shrinkage degree is Jining City,and the city with the lowest average shrinkage degree is Puyang City.(3)The spatial differentiation characteristics of urban shrinkage are significant,showing a location pattern of more shrinking cities in the middle reaches and less shrinking cities in the lower reaches,and the shrinkage degree of resource-based cities in the middle reaches is lower than that of cities in the lower reaches.2.The spatial effect test of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.Firstly,based on the related theories and methods of spatial effects,the spatial proximity weight matrix is constructed.Secondly,the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method is used to deeply explore the spatial agglomeration characteristics of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.Finally,the local indicators of spatial association(LISA)cluster map is drawn to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin at various time stages,and to reveal the spatial evolution law of urban shrinkage.The results are as follows.(1)The shrinkage of resource-based cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has a relatively significant positive spatial correlation as a whole during the study period.The middle reaches show a negative spatial correlation,and the lower reaches shows a strong positive spatial correlation.(2)The spatial distribution pattern of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has changed significantly.The spatial distribution pattern of urban shrinkage in the middle reaches has experienced dynamic changes: “large differences between the east and the west,and there is polarization in the north and south,” “the differences between the east and the west still exist,and the north and south poles are slightly polarized” and “the difference between the east and the west has become smaller,and the polarization between the north and the south has become prominent.” The spatial distribution pattern of the shrinkage of lower reaches cities is relatively stable,showing the distribution pattern of “high-efficiency agglomeration in the east.”3.Analysis of the influencing factors of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.The evaluation index of influencing factors is selected,the spatial effect is included in the analysis framework,and the spatial durbin model(SDM)with time fixed effect is selected as the optimal spatial econometric model after testing and analysis,and then the influencing factors of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin are empirically tested and the spatial spillover effect is analyzed.The results are as follows.The level of economic development,industrial structure,environmental quality and scientific and technological support play a positive role in promoting the improvement of urban shrinkage,and the ranking of the impact degree is weakened in turn.Population structure and energy consumption level have a significant negative correlation with urban shrinkage.The level of public services shows a positive correlation but fails the significance test.In terms of spatial effect decomposition,economic development level,industrial structure and public service level have significant negative spatial spillover effects.Scientific and technological support and environmental quality have significant positive spatial spillover effects,and the indirect effects of population structure and energy consumption level have no significant effect,which shows that it does not form an effective spatial spillover effect.4.Governance strategy of resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.According to the urban development stage theory,urban spatial structure theory,population development theory and shrewd shrinkage theory,drawing on the practical experience of developed countries in coping with urban shrinkage,and combining with the results of empirical analysis,this dissertation puts forward ideas and measures for resource-based cities shrinkage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,which mainly includes the following measures.(1)Facing the phenomenon of urban shrinkage objectively and increasing government policy support.(2)Changing the development concept of urban shrinkage,and gradually achieving slimming and strengthening.(3)Optimizing the labor structure and strengthening the introduction of urban talents.(4)Accelerating the transformation and upgrading of urban industries and enhancing the comprehensive economic development.(5)Increasing the investment in urban science and technology to promote urban innovation-driven development.(6)Deepening environmental governance of shrinking cities and striving to reproduce clear waters and green mountains.(7)Strengthening the construction of urban infrastructure and improving the level of public services.(8)Transforming the old and new driving forces of cities and promoting high-quality urban development. |
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