Study On The Implicit Debt Risk Of China’s Local Governmentsfrom The Perspective Of Public-Private Partnership

In order to promote the local infrastructure construction and economic and social development,under the increasing pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure,local governments generally adopt various ways of borrowing to raise the required construction funds,leading to the expansion of government debt.In recent years,under the background of the "New Normal" of China’s economy and the central government’s strengthening of local government debt management,the Public-Private Partnership(PPP)has developed rapidly with its advantages in easing the government financing gap and resolving local government debt.Although the development of PPP in China has achieved certain goals,local governments still have a GDP-Only view of political achievements and rely heavily on government investment to drive economic growth,they loose the prior review of construction projects,finance in disguise through financing platform companies or PPP,avoid national policy supervision,and increase implicit debt outside the government’s statutory debt limit.Facing the above situation,the relevant national ministries and commissions attached great importance to this problem,successively issued documents and adopted a series of control measures,which has effectively curbed the implicit debt risk induced by PPP to a certain extent.However,local governmentsstill have many problems,such as unclear definition of implicit debt induced by PPP,blind areasin the supervision of PPP projects and local governments have not issued corresponding risk prevention and control measures.Therefore,to study the implicit debt risk of local government induced by PPP,it is necessary to clarify the attribute of implicit debt,and formulate a long-term mechanism to regulate the development of PPP in combination with the reality of China.It is necessary to analyze the trigger of implicit debt risk from each stage of PPP project operation process,and scientifically measure the spatial distribution of implicit debt risk of local government caused by PPP.This dissertation puts forward countermeasures to prevent PPP from dissimulating into a new financing platform and inducing local implicit debt risk in different regions.The purpose of this dissertation is to clarify the connotation of government implicit debt caused by PPP,analyze the formation mechanism of implicit debt risk of local government,provide theoretical support and open up new research anglesfor the research oflocal government risk management and PPP normative management theory,and reveal the spatial distribution of implicit debt risk of local governments under PPP perspective.It provides some reference for the top-level design ’of PPP standard management policies and the medium and long-term control of local governments’implicit debts,at the same time provides effective basis for local practical departments to identify and monitor implicit debt risks caused by PPP projects.This dissertation takes the spatial measurement and governance path of implicit debt riskin different regions as the research object from the perspective of PPP.The research contents are successive and closely linked.First of all,the research clarifies the concept and constitution of implicit debt of local governmentfrom the perspective of PPP.Second,the dissertation focuses on the application of local PPP in China,and summarizes five ways to spread the implicit debt risk of local government.Third,the institutional factors of PPP which induce implicit debt of local governments are analyzed from each stage of PPP project including identification,preparation,procurement,implementation and handover.Fourth,spatial factors are added to the traditional regression model only considering the influence of institutional variables,the research assumptions of spatial structure and institutional structure are refined,the spatial lag model and spatial error regression model are constructed,and the risk status and influencing factors of local government implicit debt from the perspective of PPP are analyzed by using Geoda and Stata14.0software.Fifth,the dissertation introduces the main characteristics of PPP mode in France,Britain,Canada and South Korea,and summarizes the enlightenment of practical experience to China.Sixth,drawing on the practices of advanced countries and based on the above-mentioned risk points and spatial distribution of local government implicit debt system,this dissertation puts forward the governance path of orderly promoting the standardized development of PPP and controlling the growth of implicit debt,including make rational use of PPP and give full play to the positive role of PPP;Strengthening the supervision and control of high-risk areas of local government implicit debt and strictly preventing risk spillover;Identify PPP projects in an orderly manner and improve the risk management mechanism of implicit debt from PPP;Realize PPP project information sharing and increaselocal governments cooperation about implicit debt risk management;Improve the construction of supervision system and standardize the behavior of relevant subjects.The innovations of this dissertation are as followed:Firstly,it delivers the research from a new perspective.The dissertation analyses the implicit debt risk of local governments caused by PPP,conductsspatial empirical technology on the risk status of implicit debt based on the theoretic analysis,and then puts forward the orderlygovernance path of risksin different regions.Secondly,the innovation of research ideas thoroughly analyzes the infection path of local government implicit debt caused by improper operation in China’s PPP,and the institutional factors inducing local government implicit debt from each stage of the whole life cycle of PPP,which is the basis of this empirical analysis.Thirdly,this dissertation contains the innovation of research content and method,adopts the front-edge financial space technology method,emphasizes the dual role of spatial and institutional structure,and constructs a spatial measurement model to analyze the geographical distribution of implicit debt risk and the interaction and spillover effect of adjacent space.The deficiency lies in the lack of thorough research on objectivity and accuracy of the definition factors triggering the government implicit debt risk system during the operation of PPP,and the lack of information and data disclosed in the practice of PPP specific projectsresulting in certain restrictions on the selection of empirical analysis indicators.These deficiencies are also the bottleneck in the research of PPP operation mode and local governments’implicit debt,and it is an important topic for academic research and practical supervision.As the development of PPP and scientific management of local government debt,the deficiencies will beremedied in the future.