The Research On The Coordinate Relationship Between Housing Price Volatility, Financial Efficiency And Real Economic Growth

The real economy is the economical foundation of one country,the real estate and financial industries play a pivotal role in the national economy,and the relationship between the real estate industry,the financial industry and the real economy growth are interdependent,mutual restrictive,and reinforce each other to be one system.However,under the new normal of economic growth shifting,driving force translating,and structural optimization,and facing the important problems of structural supply and demand imbalances in the real economy,financial supply imbalances with the real economy,real estate imbalances with the real economy,the trend of real estate excessive prosperity,social capital excessive from real to virtual,and hollowing out the real economy is emerging.How to return housing prices rationality,improve the efficiency of financial services to the real economy,and promote the coordinated development of the real estate industry,the financial industry and the real economy have become a major theoretical and practical issues that urgently need to be resolved in the China.Carrying out an in-depth coordinated analysis of housing price volatility,financial efficiency and real economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.This article takes the empirical analysis of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth as main line,and according with the detailed investigations and statistical data,comprehensively using the theories and analysis tools as real estate economics,financial theories,macroeconomics,industrial economics,econometrics et al.,to clarify the interaction mechanism,characteristics and the scientific laws of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,and this article has four parts: The first part is theory,including chapter one,chapter two,and chapter three.In this part,it introduces the background and significant value of this paper,and systematically analyzes the related references about housing price volatility,financial efficiency and the real economic growth,and explores the theoretical basis including concept,internal logic,influencing mechanism.The second part is empirical facts,including chapter four,it systematically analyzes the empirical facts of the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth in China,and summarize the characteristics from relevant historical data.The third part is empirical analysis,including chapter 5,chapter 6 and chapter 7.It drawing from the coupling coordination function,to construct the coupling-coordination degree model about the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,and depict the coupling and coordinated development relationship between them;Using the spatial panel model to analyze the spatial characteristics of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency,and the real economic growth;Constructing a new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model including the real estate market,to analyze the dynamic coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and real economic growth.The fourth part is the advice,including chapter 8,it summarizes the main conclusions of the article,and points out further research directions.The main conclusions of this article as followings: from the analysis of the internal mechanism of the three,it shows that existed a interdependent,mutual impacted and restricted relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,and tend to coordinate.From the analysis of relevant historical data characteristics and the estimation result of the multi-GRACH model of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,found the volatility of their mutual relationship,as well as the nonlinear characteristic.And the coordination and coupling degree model analysis shows that during the sample investigation period,the degree of coordination and coupling in each region is relatively low,and located in the primary uncoupled coordination stage,but existed a tendency as changing from the primary uncoupled coordination stage to the primary coupled coordination stage.From the spatial econometric analysis,concluded that the coordinated relationship between the house price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth have a significantly spatial dependence relationship in general,and the spatial agglomeration effect is significant;From the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium analysis,it is found that the housing price volatility is an important factor affecting the financial efficiency and the real economic growth volatility.The characteristics and innovations of this article are as follows: First,it innovatively constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,and explores the theoretical coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth.Second,exploratory empirically analyze the dynamic coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth.By constructing a model of coupling coordination degree between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth,this article analysis the coupling coordination relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth;Based on the spatial panel regression model,the spatial effect of the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth is discussed.Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,the dynamic quantitative coordinated relationship between housing price volatility,financial efficiency and real economic growth is analyzed.The third is to put forward policy recommendations on the coordinated relationship between the housing price volatility,the financial efficiency and the real economic growth.Based on the main conclusions of the empirical analysis,highlight the problem orientation,and put forward policy implications to promote the coordinated development of the real estate industry,the financial industry and the real economy.