| The current uncertainty of China’s economic policy is increasing.Economic policy uncertainty refers to the uncertainty that enterprises or individuals cannot accurately predict,and can only vaguely perceive whether the government will introduce policies in the future,the specific time and specific content of the policies,and the uncertainty caused by them.The reason is that,on the one hand,it is affected by the international environment.Economic globalization has not only brought closer ties between countries,but also uncertainties.Since the 2008 financial crisis,political divisions,polarization,and the increased role of government spending in the overall economy have all led to a surge in uncertainty(Baker et al.,2013),and the United States has frequently withdrawn from the group,withdrawn from the treaty,and unilaterally imposed levies.Tariffs have intensified the Sino-US trade war,the new crown pneumonia epidemic that swept the world in 2020,and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have further increased the external uncertainty of the global economy.In order to cope with this uncertainty,various countries continue to introduce policies,which will inevitably be accompanied by the emergence of economic policy uncertainty in the process of policy making.The spillover of uncertainty in foreign economic policies has led to an increase in uncertainty in China’s domestic economic policies.At the same time,the Chinese government will also introduce corresponding policies in response to economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty from abroad.This superimposed effect is again pushed forward.Increased domestic economic policy uncertainty.On the other hand,it is the inevitable result of promoting the transformation and development of the domestic economy.In order to cope with the complicated domestic and international economic environment and meet the requirements of high-quality and stable economic development,the Chinese government has continuously introduced new economic policies or adjusted current economic policies to regulate economic development.Economic policies that have intensified changes have led to economic policy uncertainty.The existence of uncertainty in economic policies has become the external environment for the survival of enterprises,affecting their operations,investment and other behaviors.Mergers and acquisitions are a type of corporate investment.Reasonable mergers and acquisitions are an important way for companies to grow and increase productivity.At the same time,they can redistribute resources in the real economy and help the country’s industrial upgrading.The impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate mergers and acquisitions and the impact mechanism cannot be answered yet.M&A is an important corporate decision,and synergy is the motivation for M&A activities(Berkovitch,1993;Mulherin,2000).The acquirer can achieve value creation by acquiring the scarce and high-quality resource elements of the target company.Based on the three stages of synergy identification in the M&A process,the pre-merger,during the synergy and the post-merger when the synergy is exerted,this paper analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A decision,M&A premium and M&A performance.The impact mechanism attempts to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate mergers and acquisitions under the circumstances of economic policy uncertainty,so as to further construct the realization path of the acquirer’s M&A value creation under the circumstances of economic policy uncertainty.Based on the theory of corporate investment under uncertainty and related theories of corporate mergers and acquisitions,this article first constructs theoretically possible paths for economic policy uncertainty to affect corporate mergers and acquisitions,and secondly,through empirical tests,it explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty on merger decisions and merger premiums.,The impact of M&A performance and its impact mechanism.At the same time,the existence of intermediary agencies can reduce the uncertainty faced by enterprises.Therefore,this article explores the role of investment banks in mergers and acquisitions in mergers and acquisitions initiated under economic policy uncertainties,and examines the heterogeneity and heterogeneity of economic policy uncertainties.The effect of the nature of property rights on the results.The research found in this paper:(1)Through the analysis of the samples from 2004 to2018,it is found that the uncertainty of economic policy inhibits companies from making M&A decisions.By increasing the value of waiting options for M&A transactions,reducing the willingness of enterprises to take risks,and reducing corporate mergers and acquisitions The ability to pay prevents the acquirer from making M&A decisions.In further testing,it was found that fiscal policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty inhibited companies from making M&A decisions;economic policy uncertainty promoted mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises and inhibited mergers and acquisitions of non-state-owned enterprises;(2)Based on According to the M&A data from 2014 to 2018,the analysis found that economic policy uncertainty has significantly increased the corporate M&A premium by increasing the control transfer premium,while economic policy uncertainty affects the asset evaluation premium and management overconfidence,which affects the M&A premium.The path is not established.In further testing,it is found that financing constraints and investment banking industry expertise cannot adjust the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A premiums.Fiscal policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty increase M&A premiums;economic policy uncertainty affects state-owned enterprise mergers and acquisitions The premium has no effect,increasing the M&A premium of non-state-owned enterprises.(3)Based on M&A data from 2014 to 2018,the study found that economic policy uncertainty reduces short-term M&A performance,but improves long-term M&A performance.Specifically,economic policy uncertainty reduces short-term optimism by reducing investor optimism.M&A performance,to improve long-term M&A performance by improving the efficiency of corporate M&A integration.In further testing,it was found that the high M&A premium brought about by economic policy uncertainty did not adversely affect M&A performance.The industry expertise of investment banking can adjust the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on short-term M&A performance,but it cannot strengthen the positive impact of economic policy uncertainty on long-term M&A performance.Fiscal policy uncertainty,trade policy uncertainty,and exchange rate policy uncertainty have a restraining effect on short-term M&A performance,but the uncertainty of various policies has no effect on long-term M&A performance.Regardless of the nature of property rights,economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces short-term M&A performance,but non-state-owned enterprises are more sensitive;but economic policy uncertainty promotes long-term M&A performance of non-state-owned enterprises,and has little effect on long-term M&A performance of state-owned enterprises.Significantly.(4)Constructed the realization path of M&A value creation under economic policy uncertainty.In the synergy identification stage,in the presence of economic policy uncertainty,the acquirer perceives the uncertainty of the business environment and waits for M&A transactions.The value of options increases and the willingness of the enterprise to take risks is reduced,so that M&A decisions can only be made when a higher synergy of mergers and acquisitions is identified;in the synergy measurement stage,the acquirer is based on the objective rationality of the value enhancement brought about by the transfer of control rights Judging by the high degree of synergy of mergers and acquisitions,paying a higher premium for mergers and acquisitions.In the stage of synergy,although economic policy uncertainty reduces short-term M&A performance by affecting investor sentiment,the acquirer will be in the economy at this time.Under the pressure of policy uncertainty,the efficiency of integration has been improved,which has resulted in better long-term M&A performance and realized M&A value creation.The research significance of this article lies in:(1)Theoretical significance: 1)Based on the external situation of the existence of economic policy uncertainty,this article empirically tests the realization mechanism of M&A value creation and enriches the research on the realization mechanism of M&A value creation;2)This article explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A premiums and M&A performance,enriching the research on corporate M&A behavior and economic consequences under economic policy uncertainty;3)Through the context of M&A,investigating investors in the capital market,Management’s decision-making after perceiving uncertainty has enriched the impact of economic policy uncertainty on micro-individuals;4)Based on the research on the Chinese market,it has enriched the empirical evidence of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A transactions in emerging markets.(2)Practical significance: 1)Provide support for corporate mergers and acquisitions with a high degree of economic policy uncertainty,and provide behavioral guidance for companies to realize the value creation of mergers and acquisitions;2)Provide advice and guidance for investor investment under high economic policy uncertainty Investors overcome irrational emotional weakness and make reasonable investment decisions;3)Provide suggestions for government policy formulation in emerging markets,and provide policy inspiration for the government to use policies to promote the development of the M&A market and improve the economic consequences of listed companies’ M&A transactions.The research innovations of this paper are:(1)Through the exploration of the realization mechanism of M&A value creation under the uncertainty of economic policy,it supplements the related research on the realization of M&A value creation.Existing research on the realization of M&A value creation is mostly based on the post-merger integration stage,usually following an isolated view and ignoring the integrity of M&A.The existence of economic policy uncertainty provides an external scenario for corporate mergers and acquisitions.Based on the three stages of merger and acquisition transactions,this article empirically tests the realization path of corporate merger value creation under economic policy uncertainty,thereby constructing corporate merger value creation Implementation mechanism.(2)Through empirical testing of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different stages of M&A transactions,it enriches the relevant research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A,and supplements the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A premiums and the economic consequences of M&A.Research on the impact mechanism is lacking.There are few studies on economic policy uncertainty and M&A behavior and economic consequences.Most studies try to explore the mechanism by which economic policy uncertainty affects M&A decision-making,and regard economic policy uncertainty as evidence of M&A premium and M&A economic consequences.Based on the research on M&A premium and M&A performance,this article answers the impact and empirically examines the path of its influence.At the same time,it examines the impact of the heterogeneity of economic policy uncertainty and the heterogeneity of the nature of property rights on the results.The related research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on mergers and acquisitions.(3)By studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on other participants in M&A transactions in the capital market,the object of research on the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty has been expanded.Existing research lacks attention to the impact of economic and political uncertainty on other participants in the capital market or other stakeholders.This article expands the research objects to managers of acquirers,financial advisors in mergers and acquisitions,and investments in capital markets.At the same time,considering the irrational behavior of economic entities,study their role in M&A transactions under the influence of economic policy uncertainty.(4)Using corporate mergers and acquisitions under economic policy uncertainty as a research scenario,the role of industry expertise of investment banks in mergers and acquisitions was studied,and related research on investment banks was expanded.Existing research mainly focuses on the reputation effect of investment banks in mergers and acquisitions,and ignores the ability factors behind them.Therefore,this article supplements the research on the economic consequences of investment banks’ related characteristics.(5)Based on the test of China’s capital market,supplemented with the micro-effects of economic policy uncertainty.Previous studies on the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty focused on Western mature markets.Because of the existence of state-owned enterprises and Chinese news media are regulated by the government,the economic policy uncertainty based on the textual analysis of news reports has led to corporate mergers and acquisitions.The impact results may vary. |
