Research On R&D Decision Based On Backward Stochastic Differential Equation

R & D capability is viewed as a measure of economic strength in many developed countries, and they invest a lot in R & D. However, Chinese companies pay little attention to R & D investment. And there is a big difference between foreign enterprises and our companies in R&D capabilities. In order to reverse this embarrassing situation, the Ministry of Science and Technology maps out the plan to develop National Key Laboratory in enterprises. Our country will build National Key Laboratory in leading enterprises of every industry, promoting construction of technology R&D system that is enterprises-centered, market-oriented, and that combines enterprise, college and research institutes. However, there exist many unknown risks and uncertainties in R & D environment. These factors restrict the potential success rate of R&D. Therefore, in order to achieve the desired development goals, enterprises not only need to develop technology continuously, but also need to get information to make correct usage strategy about resources. And then enterprises can exclude the potential risks and uncertainties interference as much as possible and fulfill R&D goals faster and better.The dissertation consists of three parts.Firstly, the dissertation introduces relevant theories of National Key Laboratory in enterprises and backward stochastic differential equation, which provides theory foundation and basis for the following chapters.Secondly, with the help of backward stochastic differential equation, the dissertation analyzes how laboratories should do in order to achieve uncertain benefits in the future. The model can help laboratory avoid risks during R&D process, exclude uncertain factors that affect R&D, and provide necessary information for decision makers. According to relevant action, R&D process of laboratory is optimized and better objective can be achieved. Finally, the dissertation does empirical research by writing the case about National Key Laboratory Enterprises of digital home appliance in Haier. The case strengthens scientificity of conclusions and verifies applicability of the model. According to relevant research, following outcomes and conclusions are obtained.First, BSDE is modeled in R & D activities of National Key Laboratory in enterprise. It is first time to apply BSDE model to R&D decision making in the field of management. On the one hand, the research extends application scope of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations theory. On the other hand, it provides important basis for R&D decision making of National Key Laboratory in enterprises.Second, under condition that the National Key Laboratory develops two products, one of which is new product A and the other of which is old product B, capital investment portfolio of National Key Laboratory in enterprises can be expressed as a backward stochastic differential equations model.Third, if two National Key Laboratories in enterprises develop the same products, sum of market share of the two products can be expressed as a BSDE model.Forth, by analyzing a R&D portfolio of the laboratory in Haier with help of backward stochastic analysis, the dissertation provides an effective path for the laboratory in Haier to develop products that meet the need of market. The path integrates feedback of customer or retailer into new product R&D decision making of the laboratory. And then the laboratory can make the optimal decision to optimize resource allocation and development of new products.