The Research On Lightning Forecast Over Nanjing Based On Multiple Types Of Observations

Lightning can cause casualties and obvious hazards to aviation, power system, computer system and intelligent construction, especially great economic loss for some important spots like airports, scenic spot and oil depots. The course of thunderstorm is so complex that research on the multiple types of observations related to the lightning occurrence is significance to the lightning forecast, which gives some reference to the business for lightning warning. Lightning location data, electric field and radar data are used in this article and characteristics of some relevant parameters are summarized by analyzing a number of thunderstorms. Electric field strength and its change rate are proved to indicate the occurrence of lightning. The measurement of electric field can be easily affected by some complex factors around and data correction for electric field is proposed by using least squares linear fitting method. Analysis and statistics for the relevant parameters during a number of thunderstorms proved that the parameter reaching a certain value can predict the occurrence of lightning. Five electric field and radar parameters are selected as predictors and their conditional probability density distribution is established on both lightning and no-lightning condition, based on which the probability of lightning on grid area is calculated by using conditional probability for independent parameter. Good forecast results have been judged by the actual observations.