The Parameter Research And Model Design Of Risk Assessment For Lightning Hazard

Through researching risk, risk assessment, and the theories and methods of nature disaster and lightning hazard, analyze the main problems of the risk assessment standards, risk assessment parameters, and risk assessment models for lightning hazard in use. With the theories of prospective risk management and fuzzy mathematics, realize the thesis's three main purposes: Put forward some personal viewpoints and creations in risk and risk assessment; Mend quantitatively the methods of risk assessment for lightning hazard in use; Establish a set of reasonable and practical risk assessment parameters and a risk assessment model for lightning hazard.Following the research route of mend with study and development with creation, give the definition of risk and the methods of risk identifying, divide the risk attitude into risk loving, risk neutralism and risk avoiding, point out the importance of enhancing the risk consciousness for lightning hazard, and summarize the mechanisms of lightning hazard the theories and methods of risk assessment for lightning hazard. Provide a set of risk assessment parameters for lightning hazard, which includes lightning times N, hazard probability P, hazard loss D, hazard risk R and protection efficiency E, and give the definition, decisive factor, value method and value scope of each parameter. Establish a risk assessment model for lightning hazard which includes lightning hazard base module, lightning hazard probability module, lightning hazard loss module, lightning hazard accepted risk module, lightning protection cost module, correcting coefficient module, lightning hazard risk module, and lightning protection class and efficiency module. With the basic reference of the assessment model in IEC61662, focusing on the lightning hazard loss D, divide the lightning hazard risk into economic risk RE and human life risk RL and treat them respectively. Finally, put the risk assessment model for lightning hazard into application, point out its existing problems and development directions, and make some conclusions.