Study On Distributing Orderliness And Forecast Model Of Geotechnical Engineering Disaster In The West Area

On the base of summarizing geotechnical engineering disaster theory at home and abroad, distributing orderliness of all kinds of geotechnical engineering disasters that are fallen across in the west development is analyzed. This thesis analyzes area and frequency of geotechnical engineering disaster and gives a synthetic distributing chart, which shows distributing orderliness and comparatively disaster area partition of all kinds of geotechnical engineering disasters in the west area intuitionally. With the development of cold area, exceptive soil disaster - frozen soil is selected, whose disaster mechanism and forecast model are studied.In the process of analyzing ice crystal and ice lens, frozen heave mechanism is studied. The influences of the five important factors named temperature, pressure, soil, water and salt are analyzed, which affect content and transfer of unfrozen water. As for the so- called frozen fringe, this thesis analyzes the factors that determine the thickness of frozen fringe, the rule that governs frozen fringe's growth and the calculation formula of the conductive humidity coefficient, moreover, this thesis discusses various expressions of the stress partitioning factor and factors that influence frozen heaven. Fuzzy evaluate is adopted to forecast frost heaving in this thesis. A better fuzzy evaluate model is put forward, in this model, determination method of the importance of index adopts the compositive method of subjective method and objective method, which makes the model more actual and more effective. Finally the model is checked by comparing the calculation result with the test result and proved reasonable and feasible.