Comprehensive Envaluation & Forecast Model Of Area's Environmental Quality And Application

Environmental system is a complex open system, who's change by time is effected by many inner or outer factors, especially by human activity. Environmental system is also a grey system, in which some factors are so fuzzy or difficult to measure, or the relations between factors are very complex, that it is impossible to ensure it's characters completely by using mathematical model. So this paper use grey dynamic model.This paper get the weighted distribution of the factors by applying grey correlated analysis to the factors that effect the status of area's environmental quality, for example area's economy, population, sources consume and investment in environment protection etc. And make a comprehensive evaluation to area's environment; Forecast every factor by using the model of GM (1, 1), and advance a new relative correlated analysis evaluation model to deal the data of single forecasts; In the end, we test the model by applying it for the data of past years of Shandong province.This paper select partial main environmental influencing factors and environmental quality index and use them to build a layered structure of general index system.(table 2.2) . In the first, we choose main polluted matters (X) as parts of index of environmental quality (Y4), with what and another environmental influencing factors (Y), we build comprehensive index of environmental quality (Z).Use the method of grey correlated analysis to ensure weighted of ( X ) and (Y), noted with θ and σ: So, we build the comprehensive evaluation model:With the data of evaluation model, we build a forecast model. First, we introduce the model of GM (1,1),and use it evaluate singly the data of factors, and build the model of relative correlated analysis :In the end, by the data of the former years 1997-2004, we apply the comprehensive model and forecast data of after years 2005-2012.