The Study On Landslides Forecast

Landslides forecast is one of the most effective ways to alleviate the damage caused by landslides disasters. It also is the crucial and difficult topic for landslides study. At the same time, It is the important means of prevention and control of geological hazards and the environmental protection.This paper is based on the general review on the achievements in the field of landslides forecast, aimed at the main problem of study on landslides forecast, The theories to landslides forecast are summarized comprehensively and systematically.Firstly, look back the related researches about landslides forecast at home and abroad. The key concepts of landslides forecast such as landslides forecast courses,space forecast,time prediction,damage loss forecast are defined and stated.Secondly, analyze the parameters of space forecast, sum up the methods of selecting parameters and summarized the methods of researching on space forecast at home and abroad, point out and analyze the contents of space forecast, which consists of possible landslides site,slope stability assessment,activity intensity and the latter also includes landslides scale,landslides distance,landslides velocity, At last, summarize the technical steps of landslides space forecast.Thirdly, analyze the categories of time prediction parameters and how to select the landslides time prediction parameters, sum up the methods of pretreatment to these documents: factor analysis,analysis of confidence levels analysis of reliability, summarize the methods of landslides time prediction, at the end, give out the technological table of how to predict the landslides time.Fourthly, analyze the types of damage loss forecast parameters, make a special analysis on two methods of landslides damage loss forecast; give the technological table of landslides damage loss forecast.Lastly, we design the integrated system of landslides forecast, which has four parts and seven functional modules, these four parts are system of space forecast, system of time prediction, system of damage loss forecast, system of results display and output, seven modules are: data management,data pretreatment,space forecast, time prediction,damage loss forecast,figure and graphic display,report forming, Give careful design to four parts, represent seven functional modules simply.