Study On City Spatial Expansion Model Based On Geo-Cellular Automata And GIS

The city is a high complicated spatio-temporal coupling huge systemwhich is constituted for the nature, society, economy, cultural...etc. It is notonly the most concentrated region of mankind's activity, but also the mostimpressionable space interacts with the humanities factor and natural factor.Urbanization is focus of human and land's relation, which mainly performsexpansions of the city space. However, because the city has characteristics ofdissipative structure, such as opening, dynamic, self-organization etc, itsbehavior has high complexity. Traditional methods already can't simulate thedevelopment and land-utilization changing process of the city accurately.Therefore, it's needed to introduce into a new technique means to simulateand forecast the dynamic expansion process of city, providing accuratedecision-making information for the city planning and management. TheGeo-Cellular Automata (Geo-CA) is a kind of spatio-temporal discretedynamics model. It's the typical method that studies on complicated systemalong with the spatio-temporal variety, specially fitting to simulation of thespatio-temporal dynamic variety of the complicated city system.The paper takes Hohhot city for study area, the land-utilization status ofHohhot city from 1995 to 2004 year by year is simulated by using the GISand Geo-Cellular Automata (Geo-CA) model, using current situation ofland-utilization (1995-2004) of Hohhot city for the data source, buildingHohhot city GeoCA-Urban model, making sure a reasonable neighbor andconverted rule of Geo-CA, through the iterative contrast and adjustment forthe parameter, finally the model is inspected remarkably and find that theaverage error in all type of land-utilization area is 6.25%. Based on the statedabove, the land-utilization status of Hohhot city in 2010 is predicted. Theresults show that the residential land area is 3692.52 hm~2, compare to2004increase 412.92hm~2, and expand 68.82 hm~2 annually; The industrial land area is 2922.03hm~2 in 2010, compared to increase 332.37 hm~2, expand 55.40 hm~2annually; Commercial land area is 2888.87hm~2 in 2010, compared to increase460.31 hm~2, expand 76.72 hm~2 annually. It's presented trends of southwarddevelopment, westward and eastward development moderately.