Forecast And Analysis Of Logistics Demand Based On Combination Model In Central Region Of China

As the belly heart of our country, the central region of China takes an important role in the development of our country economy. The Party and the State Department are foresight for the future, putting forward the strategy of the growing up of the central region of China. This thesis is based on "The Research on the Coordination Mechanism and Development Strategy of Transportation Logistics in Central China" project which is the soft science research of Ministry of Communications, study on the current logistics development situation,demand features and development trends in the central six-province area, and regards it as the components of this study subject.The thesis researches with the central point of the forecasting and analysis of logistics demand in central region of China by theories, retrospecting and combing the basic theories of the regional logistics demand in detail, bringing to the derivation definition of it gradually and elaborating the influence factors, establishing the index system of the influences of regional logistics demand. We combine the analysis of the direct logistics demand with the indirect logistics demand during the analysis process of the current situation of logistics demand in central region of China. What's more, the current situation of logistics demand is discussed in terms of the influence factors of logistics demand and the direct and indirect logistics demand. The thesis establishing the combination forecasting model in regional logistics demand which apply the theory of entropy to determine the weights of each method. Combining the current situation of logistics demand of central region of China in previous thesis, the thesis forecast the logistics demand of central region of China and its influencing factors. Through the analysis of the forecasting result, the development trend of logistics demand of central region of China is summarized. All this work is expected not only to provide the foundation data and the decision support necessary for the policy making and planning of regional logistics, but also to offer data to the investment of logistics facilities construction.