| With economic development, central region logistics demand is increasing, and the overall size of logistics has been enlarged, meanwhile, the operational efficiency is also rising. It is particularly evident for logistics industry to support and promote the economic development role particularly evident. To analysis the logistics demand of central region,and to grasp the scale, structure and characteristics influence factors of the central region logistics demand, and to forecast future demand for logistics, we can not only understand the internal links between logistics and economics of central region, but also provide theoretical support for the ration to develop the logistics industry,and provide ideas and suggestions for government to retionally plan logistics industry, improve the logistics supply system, and coordinate the logistics industry and development of regional economic.Through the establishment of quantitative indicators, analysis the central region logistics demand. Summarize the size and the structure and characteristics.of central region logistics demand .Generalize the factors affecting the logistics demand. According to the gray model theory, determinate the correlation between factors.and logictics demand. On this basis, bring the factor index into the regression analysis model to quantitatively study on the change relations between logistics needs and factors, and use gray system theory to forecast the logistics value-added and logistics cargo and the priction have achived good prediction accuracy.The innovation is to use the gray system theory and regard logistics demands of the central region as a gray system,and extract indicators which are heighly relevant with each other with the grey relational analysis method.Forthermore,study on the changing relations between logistis demands and main factors.On the basis of this, establish PGM(1,N) through improving GM(1,1), and forecast the logistics demands of the central region. |
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