The Study Of Lightning And Thunderstorm Activities And The Assessment Of Lightning Disaster In Shandong Province

In order to improve the level of the application of the lightning data on the warning of severe weather processes and precipitation and the lightning warning and forecasting in Shandong province, kinds of lightning data and meteorological data are synthetically analyzed in this dissertation. In paper the relationship between lightning activities and precipitation, the relationship between lightning activities and the surface temperature, and the relationship between lightning activities and thermodynamic fluxes are discussed. The analysis is beneficial to deeply understand the mechanism about the relationship among the aforesaid factors, extending the application field of the lightning data and promoting the development of "lightning meteorology". The main research contents and results are as follows.By using the data of thunderstorm of Shandong Province from 1966 to 2005, the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of thunderstorms are studied .The distribution of annual mean of thunderstorm days shows that thunderstorms in the mountainous areas of Mt. Taishan and Mts. Yimeng are more than ones in the western plain area of Shandong Province and coastal region of Shandong peninsula. Thunderstorms mainly occur in summer with obvious diurnal variation. Analyses indicate that the general trend of Shandong thunderstorms has wave nature reduced during the last 40 years .The annual variation and decadal variability of thunderstorms are obvious in Shandong Province.The relationship between the lightning activities and the temperature is studied. It is shows that there is positive correlation between the lightning activities and the temperature in Shandong province. But the correlation is not immovable in different temporal scales. In the month scale, the correlation coefficient is 0.85 and in the season scales is 0.49, which both pass through the 0.95 reliability test.The relationship between the lightning activities and the rain is synthetically analyzed hydrometeors. Although the spatial quantitative relationship between the lightning activities and the rainfall intensity in the season scale are good, but the annual variation of the two meteorological elements pretty well. The maximum value of lightning in Shandong province is in July, but the its maximum of rain appears on August.A disaster network figure is obtained on the base of analysis of objects under the threat of lightning disaster. As the guide of disaster network figure, assessment index system and structure model of assessment are established. Then the indices weights and evaluations are obtained, and the conversion table is given. In conclusion, the synthetically assessment model is proposed. The pattern had found its application in assessing two lightning disasters of Shandong, and the results are satisfied.Using the lightning disaster, thunderstorm days, economic and population data of eighteen counties in Shandong province during 1995-2006, vulnerability analysis, evaluation and vulnerability zoning of lightning disaster in Shandong province have been made. While the study about spatial distribution of lightning disaster frequency indicates that more lightning disasters occur in the city zone and near suburb than in the far suburb. There are more dwellers in the city zone and near suburb than in the far suburb, and of the two the former GDP (gross domestic product) is more than latter one. This suggests that thunderstorm activity is not the only reason of lightning disaster in Shandong province. The lightning disaster might also relate with the population density and economy of disaster area. The vulnerability zoning of the lightning disaster is obtained based on the vulnerability degree values of the eighteen counties in Shandong province. The result shows that Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo, Zaozhuang and Yantai are the districts belong to the maximal damageable area. Dongying, Jinin and Weifang belong to the high damageable area. Taian,Liaocheng,Weihai,Bingzhou,Rizhao and Laiwu belong to the low damageable area. The rest districts belong to the medium damageable area. This study might provide scientific basis for the planning of regional prevention and reduction of lightning disaster in Shandong province.