The Study On Math Model Inuence Factors Of Land Sandy Desertication

Sandy desertification is one of the global society and economy problems, its rapiddilation causes environmental degradation and severe economical loss, solicitation regionlocal turbulence and welfare. Presently, sandy desertification becomes focus of the globalattention. China is a?ected by sandy desertification as one of the most serious countryin the world,and every year it directly caused economic loss of 54 billion RMB. Xinjiangis located in the western border of China, its desertification is the largest and mostwidely being distributed in the provinces, is one of the most serious regions.Base onunderstanding of land sandy desertification, its causes be boiled down to two categories:natural factor and human factor.We mainly research which is the more important for sandydesertification.Only find dominant factor of sandy desertification and grasp the principalcontradiction,we can formulate appropriate policies to resolve the environmental problemsbase on theory.It have great significance for sandy desertification research.This paper selects Minfeng county as the study,which is one of the serious desertifi-cation regions in Xinjiang, is provided with representative. For Minfeng county, we usemathematical models and principal component analysis of multivariate statistical methodsto do numerical experimentation: 1. make use of math model and correlative statisticaldata making quantitative analysis to gain: the specific gravity of human factor is 69.16percent, the specific gravity of natural factor is 30.84 percent. 2.make use of principal com-ponent analysis to obtain: the first principal component was 51.735 percent, human factoris positively related to it, and natural factor is positively related to the second principalcomponent which was 17.416 percent. To sum up, the human factor of sandy desertifi-cation is dominant role in Minfeng county. Compared with others variables, populationnumber has sizeable weight factor in the calculation of principal components analysis. Sothat population continued growth of the pressure is one of the important components inhuman factor. Accurate forecast population of the area to develop a reasonable policyof population is critical, to utilize reasonable policy controlling population number can slower the speed of desertification. Therefore, propose model with the desert area impactof differential equation model for population forecast of sandy desertification region.The main content of this article can be summarized as follows: The first part introducesthe topics in the background, significance and objective of this study; The second partintroduces the quantitative analysis of the mathematical model for the human factor onland sandy desertification with doing numerical experimentation; The third part describesthe principal component analysis method of multivariate statistical analysis, with usingprincipal component analysis be to do numerical experimentation;The fourth part of thepaper propose population forecast model for land sandy desertification region and forecastMinfeng population; The fifth part points to the innovation and the lack of in this paperand gives some recommendations to prevent land sandy desertification.