| Based on air quality data during 2007～2008 over Zhumadian City, weather data, and T213 numerical prediction product, by analyzing stemporal-spatial distributinon characteristic and main impact factor of air pollution, the air pollutant statistical forecast equation have been made.Air quality is basically good in Zhumadian City. In autumn and winter air pollution are severer than in spring and summer. The frequency of severer pollution is increasing from spring, summer, autumn to winter. Comparison of air quality in the three monitoring stations show that the difference between new and old industrial area is small. The second branch factory of Tianfang Medicine, representing an independent pollution source, has relatively lighter pollution due to some measures against pollution, but sometimes it may incur severer pollution.The peak concentration of the three air pollutants of SO2,NO2 and PM10 appears in December and January, while the valley appears in July and August. However, during the wheat harvest and summer seeding in May and June, the concentration of PM10 has an apparent secondary peak value. The ten-day period variation curve indicates that the peak appears from the middle ten-day period of December to the middle ten-day period of January, while the valley appear from the first ten-day period of July to the last ten-day period of August.The correlation among the concentration of the three pollutants is the most significant and relatively stable in the third monitoring station, the second branch factory of Tianfang Medicine, and is relatively stable and significant in autumn and winter, but relatively weak in spring and summer.The correlation of the pollutant concentration and surface meteorological elements is the most significant in autumn, the second in winter. The negative correlation between horisiontal visibility and the air pollutant concentration is very significant in winter. The correlation between air air pressure and the pollutant concentration is positive in summer and autumn, but not significant in winter and spring. The correlation between air temperature and the pollutant concentration is basically negative, and is the most significant in autumn. The negative correlation between relative humidity and the pollutant concentration is significant in summer and autumn. The positive correlation between total cloud cover and the pollutant concentration is relatively significant only in the winter. The negative correlation between mean wind velocity and the NO2 concentration is significant in the whole year. And the negative correlation between mean wind velocity and the other two pollutants concentration is only significant in winter.The 24h variation correlation between surface air temperature and the concentration of the three kinds pollutant of SO2,NO2 and PM10 is weakly positive in summer and autumn, and is not significantin in other seasons. In summer, the correlation between 24h variation of SO2,NO2,PM10 and 12h variation of relative humidity are positive. In autumn, the correlation between 24h variation of SO2,NO2,PM10 and 12h variation of air temperature are significant negative.Based on the fundamental theory about the air pollutant dilution, proliferation and polymerization, combined with the local weather forecasting experience, by finding the main meteorological elements that influence on the air pollution, by considering the relevant research of air quality forecasting, and by using T213 numerical prediction products,48 meteorological factors have been collected in the study of air quality forecasting system, and the monthly forecasting equation about 24h variation of air pollutants concentration of SO2,NO2 and PM10 has been built by stepwise regression. The fitting test result show that the forecastingequation has a good forecasting ability. In the end, the study establishes a air quality forecasting system procedure which can be used in the operation of Zhumadian City, and can helps provide better and more professional forecasting service to the public.
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