Study Of Forecast Of PM₁₀ Pollution And Ability Construction Of Ecological Adjustment And Control In Xi'an City

The forecast of PMio pollution in Xi'an city had been studied according to theo concentration value that monitored from June 2000 to March 2004 and the ground meteorological data from June 2001 to March 2004 of Xi'an city. Because of the seasonal characteristic in PMio concentration value and meteorological factor, the research had been outspreaded as season as masterstroke.When the air pollution index(API) > 150, ah- quality belongs to low-grade and upwards, it will bring adverse impact to physical healthy. In the dissertation, statistical analysis had been done for the polluted days' (API > 150) meteorological data in term of season, and compared with the distribution of none-polluted days' meteorological data. On the basis of contrast, confirm possible meteorological condition that can arise polluted day in different seasons.There is a close correlativity between PM10 concentration and meteorological condition, so one-member statistical method had been used to analyst the correlation between them according to season. From this, meteorological factors can been found which has distinct impact for the PM10 pollution, which become a gist to choice forecast gene in the study of forecast model.After contrasted many forecast method, the dissertation choose stepwise-filter method, standard-stepwise regression analysis and main element regression in the excessive-member statistical method to build forecast model in the light of season, moreover compared the veracity and applicability of different model, and selected standard-stepwise regression analysis finally. In order to eliminate the total line, REG process in the SAS system had been used. Through checkout in 289 days, veracity of model achieved 76.69%.In addition, after consulted data of fountainhead parse, the dissertation educed that soil dust is main hi Xi'an city. At the same time, analyzing method in adjust city climate and improve city atmosphere environment, combining characteristic of landform and physiognomy and climate in Xi'an city, obtain several advices about ecological adjustment and control in Xi'an city.