A Research And Application Of Modeling System On The Spillovers Of Carbon Abatement Policy Between China And The U.S.

Global change has become the highlight and difficult part of the earth science. In order to meet the challenge of the global climate challenge, the world community has taken great trouble in negotiating and discussing to achieve the collective action in the carbon abatement. Every country faces the dilemma between carbon abatement and economic growth. Many scholars have come up with lots of countermeasures to restrain the emission of the greenhouse gases as well as the suggestions about the effect on the economic growth. To strive for Chinese national interests in the global negotiation of climate change, many efforts should be done in the research of the influence of climate protection from all aspects. From the viewpoint of international GDP spillovers caused by climate protection policy, this thesis proposes some points about the Chinese policy about climate change.Firstly, the model system of the paper is based upon four main models, which includes State-contingent model containing the analysis of the macroeconomic impact of carbon abatement, and the Demeter model integrating the endogenous technology change, as well as the model of carbon abatement mechanism by the increasing of carbon sink. The most improvement of the model system of the paper is the integration of the Mendell-Fleming model, which deals with the process of international spillovers, and the model of climate-economy model, which make way for the analysis of the international GDP spillovers caused by the policy of climate protection.Based on the achievements of former research work, this thesis has accomplished some creative work listed as below:1) Application of the dynamic economy-climate model in the frame of endogenous economy growth to US. According to the feature of America, the paper rebuilds some equation and acquires the parameter of American equation by regressing and estimation.2) Studying the effect of controllable climate protection policy on the American economic growth, social welfare as well as the result of quantity of carbon reduction.3) Analyzing the GDP spillovers between China and US brought by the implementation of controllable policy.Considering the issue of the spillovers of Sino-American climate policy, which covered the natural climate system, economic system and energy consumption as well as the data and equations from different countries, we developed an open computer information system to process the effect of multi-policy and to modeling the effect of spillovers for the convenience of decisionmaking. Designed by the guidance of the theory of software engineering, the computation model system realizes three main functions: computation modeling, data storage and visible output in the programming environment of Delphi 6.0 with the help of ADO component.Based on the computation modeling system, using the Scenario Analysis method, we realized two applications of the system.Firstly, we simulate the impact of various controllable climate protection policies on the American macroeconomic growth and the carbon emission from US. The simulation results show that without unacceptable crush on American economy, the strategy of increasing carbon sink and the policy of substituting the fossil energy with non-fossil energy can win the goal of controlling the emission of carbon. The results also reveal the feasibility of controllable policy of carbon abatement to US.Another application of the system is modeling the GDP spillovers between China and US caused by the climate protection policy. By setting the scenarios of different climate policy, which includes whether to reduce carbon emission and the level of controlment, we find that the effect of American policy of reduce carbon emission on Chinese GDP is more considerable than the effect of Chinese policy on American GDP. These two spillover effects with different direction both go through a process from the negative effect to the positive effect. So the conclusion is drawn that Chinese GDP growth take the advantage of American policy of reduce carbon emission in the long run.